Outcomes
Updated 20 October 2026
United StatesElection day · NOV 03, 2026

United States midterm elections, 2026

The midterms of Trump's second term: 35 Senate seats and the whole House, fought in a strongly negative approval environment.

Synthetic call made 14days to polls
Synthetic lead, darker for widerNot simulatedNo race
Alabama · synthetic R+24.0 · polls R+18.0ArizonaArkansas · synthetic R+28.2 · polls R+9.0CaliforniaColorado · synthetic D+47.8ConnecticutDelaware · synthetic D+42.8District of ColumbiaFlorida · synthetic R+14.1 · polls R+5.7Georgia · synthetic D+25.1 · polls D+8.6Idaho · synthetic R+8.2 · polls R+14.0Illinois · synthetic D+31.9 · polls D+15.3IndianaIowa · synthetic R+18.0 · polls D+0.9Kansas · synthetic R+9.6 · polls D+1.2Kentucky · synthetic R+22.2 · polls R+11.4Louisiana · synthetic R+29.6 · polls R+4.7Maine · synthetic D+4.8 · polls D+2.3MarylandMassachusetts · synthetic D+46.8 · polls D+22.3Michigan · synthetic D+9.9 · polls D+3.5Minnesota · synthetic D+15.8 · polls D+3.7Mississippi · synthetic R+9.7 · polls R+4.5MissouriMontana · synthetic R+22.1 · polls R+15.4Nebraska · synthetic I+26.2 · polls R+0.5NevadaNew Hampshire · synthetic D+21.4 · polls D+5.9New Jersey · synthetic D+43.2New Mexico · synthetic D+65.5 · polls D+18.2New YorkNorth Carolina · synthetic D+21.4 · polls D+10.1North DakotaOhio · synthetic R+2.5 · polls D+4.2Oklahoma · synthetic R+26.0 · polls R+23.8Oregon · synthetic D+39.7PennsylvaniaRhode Island · synthetic D+65.0 · polls D+22.1South Carolina · synthetic R+7.1 · polls R+3.3South Dakota · synthetic R+28.5 · polls R+0.5Tennessee · synthetic R+33.9 · polls R+27.5Texas · synthetic D+17.7 · polls D+2.9UtahVermontVirginia · synthetic D+37.3 · polls D+21.8WashingtonWest Virginia · synthetic R+51.4WisconsinWyoming · synthetic R+38.9Alaska · synthetic D+1.5 · polls D+2.7Hawaii
Select a state for its Senate race.

Balance of the Senate

The 65 seats not on the ballot at the party that holds them, with the 35 synthetic calls outlined in violet.

51Democrats50 + VP controls · 1 independent48Republicans
AlabamaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingAlaskaHawaii FL-09 · synthetic D+1.2 · polls EVENTX-23 · synthetic R+2.3 · polls R+2.0CA-22 · synthetic D+6.3 · polls D+4.3NY-21 · synthetic D+18.6 · polls R+2.5CO-08 · synthetic D+12.7 · polls R+2.1KY-06 · synthetic R+16.5 · polls R+0.5ME-02 · synthetic D+22.1 · polls D+1.7AZ-06 · synthetic D+2.0 · polls D+2.7PA-01 · synthetic R+6.5 · polls R+5.0NY-17 · synthetic D+15.1 · polls R+0.5MI-07 · synthetic R+0.7 · polls D+2.1PA-07 · synthetic D+3.2 · polls D+5.1VA-01 · synthetic D+7.8 · polls D+1.6MI-04 · synthetic D+5.3 · polls D+1.1MI-10 · synthetic D+9.6 · polls EVENWI-03 · synthetic D+10.3 · polls D+4.2IA-01 · synthetic D+0.6 · polls D+5.2PA-08 · synthetic D+16.7 · polls D+1.6NC-11 · synthetic D+13.2 · polls D+3.3OH-07 · synthetic R+1.3 · polls D+11.6FL-22 · synthetic R+2.3 · polls D+1.1TX-34 · synthetic R+3.5 · polls D+3.4TX-15 · synthetic R+12.2 · polls D+9.5AK-AL · synthetic I+2.8 · polls R+9.5
The 24 battleground districts with district polling. Select one for its race.

House battleground

No House majority is projected from 24 districts.

Races · 59

Each race has its own page.

RaceSyntheticPollsGap
U.S. Senate
AlabamaR+24.0 R+18.0 −6.0
AlaskaD+1.5 D+2.7 −1.2
ArkansasR+28.2 R+9.0 −19.2
FloridaR+14.1 R+5.7 −8.4
GeorgiaD+25.1 D+8.6 +16.4
IdahoR+8.2 R+14.0 −5.9
IllinoisD+31.9 D+15.3 +16.6
IowaR+18.0 D+0.9 −18.9
KansasR+9.6 D+1.2 −10.8
KentuckyR+22.2 R+11.4 −10.8
LouisianaR+29.6 R+4.7 −24.9
MaineD+4.8 D+2.3 +2.5
MassachusettsD+46.8 D+22.3 +24.4
MichiganD+9.9 D+3.5 +6.4
MinnesotaD+15.8 D+3.7 +12.1
MississippiR+9.7 R+4.5 −5.2
MontanaR+22.1 R+15.4 +6.7
NebraskaI+26.2 R+0.5 −26.7
New HampshireD+21.4 D+5.9 +15.5
New MexicoD+65.5 D+18.2 +47.3
North CarolinaD+21.4 D+10.1 +11.3
OhioR+2.5 D+4.2 −6.7
OklahomaR+26.0 R+23.8 −2.2
Rhode IslandD+65.0 D+22.1 +43.0
South CarolinaR+7.1 R+3.3 −3.8
South DakotaR+28.5 R+0.5 +28.1
TennesseeR+33.9 R+27.5 −6.4
TexasD+17.7 D+2.9 +14.8
VirginiaD+37.3 D+21.8 +15.5
ColoradoD+47.8 — —
DelawareD+42.8 — —
New JerseyD+43.2 — —
OregonD+39.7 — —
West VirginiaR+51.4 — —
WyomingR+38.9 — —
U.S. House of Representatives
Alaska at-large congressional districtI+2.8 R+9.5 −12.3
Arizona's 6th congressional districtD+2.0 D+2.7 −0.7
California's 22nd congressional districtD+6.3 D+4.3 +2.0
Colorado's 8th congressional districtD+12.7 R+2.1 +14.8
Florida's 22nd congressional districtR+2.3 D+1.1 −3.3
Florida's 9th congressional districtD+1.2 EVEN +1.2
Iowa's 1st congressional districtD+0.6 D+5.2 −4.6
Kentucky's 6th congressional districtR+16.5 R+0.5 −16.0
Maine's 2nd congressional districtD+22.1 D+1.7 +20.4
Michigan's 10th congressional districtD+9.6 EVEN +9.6
Michigan's 4th congressional districtD+5.3 D+1.1 +4.2
Michigan's 7th congressional districtR+0.7 D+2.1 −2.7
New York's 17th congressional districtD+15.1 R+0.5 +15.6
New York's 21st congressional districtD+18.6 R+2.5 +21.1
North Carolina's 11th congressional districtD+13.2 D+3.3 +9.9
Ohio's 7th congressional districtR+1.3 D+11.6 −12.9
Pennsylvania's 1st congressional districtR+6.5 R+5.0 −1.5
Pennsylvania's 7th congressional districtD+3.2 D+5.1 −1.9
Pennsylvania's 8th congressional districtD+16.7 D+1.6 +15.0
Texas's 15th congressional districtR+12.2 D+9.5 −21.6
Texas's 23rd congressional districtR+2.3 R+2.0 −0.3
Texas's 34th congressional districtR+3.5 D+3.4 −7.0
Virginia's 1st congressional districtD+7.8 D+1.6 +6.2
Wisconsin's 3rd congressional districtD+10.3 D+4.2 +6.1

Background

Electoral system
House: first-past-the-post single-member districts. Senate: statewide plurality, two per state on staggered six-year classes. Georgia and Louisiana require majority-vote (runoff) outcomes; Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice voting for federal races.
Incumbent
Donald Trump · Republican Party

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.