Arkansas
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+28.2Tom Cotton
Poll average · 3 pollsR+9.0
Gap−19.2synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Tom Cotton
54.5 synthetic48.2 polls
Hallie Shoffner
30.5 synthetic40.2 polls
Jeff Wadlin
5.2 synthetic3.7 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 4.8 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 13.1 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Hendrix College / Talk Business & Politics, shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | D | L | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| men | 94 | 67.3 / 51.6 | 32.7 / 48.4 | — | 15.6 |
| women | 106 | 61.4 / 44.6 | 38.6 / 55.4 | — | 16.8 |
| college degree | 50 | 57.2 / 31.5 | 42.8 / 68.5 | — | 25.6 |
| no college degree | 150 | 66.6 / 56.0 | 33.4 / 44.0 | — | 10.5 |
| 65 and older | 49 | 70.0 / 62.0 | 30.0 / 38.0 | — | 8.1 |
| independents | 34 | 60.1 / 33.0 | 39.9 / 67.0 | — | 27.1 |
| Republicans | 103 | 100.0 / 100.0 | — | — | 0.0 |
| men | 94 | 67.3 / 61.0 | 32.7 / 39.0 | — | 6.3 |
| women | 106 | 61.4 / 58.0 | 38.6 / 42.0 | — | 3.4 |
| 18-29 | 25 | 59.5 / 21.3 | 40.5 / 78.7 | — | 38.1 |
| 50-64 | 24 | 62.5 / 62.8 | 37.5 / 37.2 | — | 0.3 |
| 65+ | 49 | 70.0 / 72.0 | 30.0 / 28.0 | — | 2.0 |
| Black | 25 | 35.9 / 19.2 | 64.1 / 80.8 | — | 16.8 |
| Republicans | 103 | 88.4 / 97.8 | 11.6 / 2.2 | — | 9.4 |
| Democrats | 63 | 21.8 / 6.5 | 78.2 / 93.5 | — | 15.4 |
| independents | 34 | 60.1 / 40.8 | 39.9 / 59.2 | — | 19.2 |
| Trump 2024 voters | 68 | 89.0 / 96.5 | 11.0 / 3.5 | — | 7.5 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, Arkansas
Approve · synthetic43.4%52.3% disapprove
Approve · polls48.0%47.5% disapprove
Net gap−9.4synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (R) | OCT 04, 2026 | 550 (LV) | 50.0 | 39.0 | 4.0 |
| J.L. Partners | AUG 18, 2026 | 803 (LV) | 51.0 | 35.0 | 4.0 |
| Hendrix College / Talk Business & Politics | AUG 12, 2026 | 1,217 (LV) | 44.0 | 47.0 | 3.0 |
| 2040 Strategy Group (D) for the Shoffner campaign | JUL 25, 2026 | 586 (LV) | 46.0 | 43.0 | — |
| GrayHouse (R) for America One Policies | FEB 09, 2026 | 550 (LV) | 58.0 | 36.0 | — |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.