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A Synthetic Michigan Picks El-Sayed
We built a synthetic Michigan electorate and asked it how it would vote in the Senate race. It came back El-Sayed +4.4 — inside the range the real polls occupy. The topline is right. One of the internals is badly wrong.
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No Texans Were Harmed in the Making of This Poll
In fact, none of them existed. Here's what our synthetic electorate said about Paxton vs. Talarico.
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Predicting Real-World Quantitative Data with Synthetic Populations
Synthetic people are already being used to forecast real survey numbers. Here is what those forecasts actually estimate, how to score them against a bar that is achievable, and why the honest bar is never zero.