About
Synthetic Outcomes is a blog about ongoing world events, read through synthetic market research generated by our internal models.
When something is happening in the world — an election, a by-election, a referendum, a contested local decision — we point our models at it and publish what a synthetic population of that place thinks. Each note pairs a real, ongoing event with synthetic market-research data: support and opposition, the reasoning behind it, and how it splits across a community.
It is the community-scale companion to Synthetic Users ↗. Where Synthetic Users simulates individual research participants, Synthetic Outcomes turns the same approach on the collective — the moments where a population, not a person, is the unit of analysis.
How a note works
- Take a real event that's unfolding now.
- Synthesize the specific electorate or community it concerns, from our internal world and population models.
- Interview that synthetic population — closed questions and open-ended "why" — and report what it says, methods stated plainly.
- When the real outcome lands, grade the simulation against it.
A standing caveat
Everything here is synthetic. The numbers describe simulated populations produced by our models — not polls of real people, and not forecasts. When we test a simulation against a real result, we say so explicitly.
Written by the research team at Synthetic Users ↗. Posts are plain markdown compiled to static pages — no tracking, no client-side JavaScript beyond the globe on the header.