Massachusetts
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
SyntheticD+46.8Ed Markey
Poll average · 4 pollsD+22.3
Gap+24.4synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Ed Markey
67.6 synthetic51.5 polls
John Deaton
20.8 synthetic29.2 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 8.0 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 6.1 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat (with leaners) | 103 | 76.0 / 81.0 | 8.2 / 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Republican (with leaners) | 54 | 32.9 / 8.0 | 38.4 / 73.0 | 12.3 |
| Independent / other (with leaners) | 43 | 53.8 / 34.7 | 17.9 / 20.8 | 8.5 |
| Men | 99 | 60.3 / 49.5 | 18.5 / 37.4 | 7.0 |
| Women | 101 | 59.1 / 54.5 | 18.3 / 16.8 | 4.5 |
| 18-29 | 25 | 52.9 / 40.0 | 19.5 / 30.0 | 6.1 |
| 30-44 | 32 | 57.8 / 52.5 | 19.6 / 25.3 | 3.8 |
| 45-59 | 46 | 61.9 / 50.0 | 19.8 / 25.0 | 6.2 |
| 60+ | 48 | 65.9 / 59.0 | 15.5 / 27.0 | 5.2 |
| Men 18-44 | 48 | 52.3 / 42.0 | 21.9 / 40.0 | 7.0 |
| Women 18-44 | 33 | 57.0 / 52.5 | 18.2 / 16.2 | 3.6 |
| Men 45+ | 51 | 67.7 / 52.0 | 15.4 / 36.0 | 7.6 |
| Women 45+ | 68 | 60.2 / 56.0 | 18.3 / 18.0 | 4.8 |
| White | 139 | 58.7 / 50.0 | 19.9 / 29.0 | 5.3 |
| Non-white | 61 | 62.0 / 59.0 | 15.0 / 17.0 | 3.2 |
| High school or less | 61 | 55.6 / 39.4 | 20.6 / 28.3 | 8.6 |
| Some college | 48 | 61.6 / 47.0 | 17.2 / 26.0 | 6.6 |
| No BA | 109 | 58.3 / 43.0 | 19.1 / 27.0 | 7.5 |
| BA+ | 91 | 61.5 / 59.0 | 17.6 / 26.0 | 3.5 |
| Income < $50K | 30 | 57.2 / 50.0 | 18.2 / 25.0 | 6.3 |
| Income $50-99K | 37 | 60.2 / 49.5 | 17.0 / 26.7 | 5.1 |
| Income $100K+ | 120 | 60.6 / 55.9 | 18.7 / 26.5 | 4.1 |
| West / Central | 49 | 58.0 / 50.0 | 18.7 / 25.5 | 5.4 |
| Southeast | 40 | 61.7 / 41.0 | 16.9 / 33.0 | 9.8 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Massachusetts voters
Approve · synthetic21.7%75.0% disapprove
Approve · polls25.0%67.0% disapprove
Net gap−11.3synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R | PSL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group | SEP 22, 2026 | 800 (LV) | 52.0 | 26.0 | 2.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | SEP 21, 2026 | 564 (LV) | 53.0 | 30.0 | 9.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | AUG 24, 2026 | 881 (LV) | 49.0 | 30.0 | 7.0 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | AUG 12, 2026 | 800 (RV) | 51.0 | 30.0 | — |
| University of New Hampshire | JUN 23, 2026 | 623 (LV) | 50.0 | 34.0 | — |
| Suffolk University | JUN 12, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 55.0 | 30.0 | — |
| University of New Hampshire | APR 20, 2026 | 603 (LV) | 55.0 | 32.0 | — |
| University of New Hampshire | FEB 16, 2026 | 620 (LV) | 56.0 | 27.0 | — |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.