Oregon

U.S. Senate

14days to polls

The call

200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.

SyntheticD+39.7Jeff Merkley

Poll average—no poll average

Gap—synthetic − polls, points

SyntheticPoll average

Jeff Merkley

56.3 synthetic

David Brock Smith

24.3 synthetic

Chris Henry

3.4 synthetic

Gary Lyndon Dye

3.3 synthetic

Against the polls

Share error: —
Crosstab error: —
Sample: 200 synthetic voters

The government

Donald Trump's job approval as President, Oregon (national fallback)

Approve · synthetic24.4%72.1% disapprove

Approve · polls39.0%58.0% disapprove

Net gap−28.7synthetic − polls

← United States midterm elections, 2026

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.