Texas's 15th congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+12.2Monica De La Cruz
Poll average · 2 pollsD+9.5
Gap−21.6synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Bobby Pulido
39.0 synthetic52.0 polls
Monica De La Cruz
49.8 synthetic43.0 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 8.7 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 9.9 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Public Policy Research / Texas Southern University (Barbara Jordan–Mickey Leland School), shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latino | 81 | 39.5 / 60.0 | 48.2 / 35.0 | 13.6 |
| White | 84 | 34.7 / 31.0 | 55.1 / 65.0 | 6.6 |
| Women | 84 | 41.4 / 56.0 | 47.4 / 37.0 | 9.8 |
| Men | 116 | 37.3 / 44.0 | 51.5 / 53.0 | 5.5 |
| 18-34 | 55 | 39.1 / 64.0 | 46.3 / 33.0 | 16.6 |
| 35-54 | 81 | 40.1 / 58.0 | 49.4 / 35.0 | 12.0 |
| 55+ | 64 | 37.6 / 43.0 | 53.0 / 53.0 | 3.6 |
| 4-yr college degree | 63 | 43.0 / 50.0 | 46.6 / 47.0 | 4.9 |
| No 4-yr degree | 137 | 37.1 / 50.0 | 51.3 / 44.0 | 8.6 |
| Hidalgo County | 107 | 39.9 / 56.0 | 48.0 / 39.0 | 10.7 |
| Other counties (10) | 93 | 38.0 / 41.0 | 51.9 / 55.0 | 4.1 |
| Democrats | 70 | 66.4 / 93.0 | 23.5 / 3.0 | 17.7 |
| Independents | 43 | 43.6 / 60.0 | 40.3 / 31.0 | 10.9 |
| Republicans | 87 | 14.6 / 8.0 | 75.4 / 89.0 | 9.1 |
| Trump 2024 voters | 57 | 17.0 / 8.0 | 75.2 / 89.0 | 9.2 |
| Harris 2024 voters | 41 | 68.7 / 93.0 | 24.6 / 2.0 | 16.2 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, TX-15 (2026 lines)
Approve · synthetic34.5%61.2% disapprove
Approve · polls40.0%54.0% disapprove
Net gap−12.7synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts (D) | SEP 28, 2026 | 400 (LV) | 54.0 | 41.0 |
| Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | AUG 22, 2026 | 700 (LV) | 50.0 | 45.0 |
| Normington Petts (D) | JUL 27, 2026 | 553 (LV) | 51.0 | 45.0 |
| Applecart (D) | MAY 25, 2026 | 802 (LV) | 48.0 | 46.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | SEP 11, 2025 | 533 (LV) | 38.0 | 41.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.