Florida

U.S. Senate

14days to polls

The call

200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.

SyntheticR+14.1Ashley Moody

Poll average · 10 pollsR+5.7

Gap−8.4synthetic − polls, points

SyntheticPoll average

Ashley Moody

48.4 synthetic48.8 polls

Angie Nixon

36.5 synthetic43.5 polls

Against the polls

Share error: 3.7 pts per option
Crosstab error: 7.3 pts
Sample: 200 synthetic voters

By group

Each cell is synthetic / YouGov, shares within the group.

Group	n	R	D	Error
18-29	18	33.8 / 32.0	50.7 / 58.0	4.1
30-44	27	57.1 / 39.6	28.4 / 52.5	12.4
45-64	76	50.1 / 51.5	36.0 / 42.4	3.9
65+	55	47.8 / 57.0	36.8 / 37.0	4.7
Men	96	50.3 / 51.0	35.1 / 41.0	3.6
Women	104	46.7 / 48.0	37.7 / 46.0	4.8
White	99	52.6 / 57.4	33.0 / 35.6	3.8
Black	29	31.4 / 8.0	51.3 / 84.0	16.4
Hispanic	67	50.2 / 45.0	34.2 / 47.0	6.4
Harris 2024 voters	53	20.0 / 2.0	67.2 / 92.0	12.4
Trump 2024 voters	64	76.1 / 90.0	11.1 / 4.0	7.0
White non-college	53	52.1 / 62.4	32.8 / 30.7	5.6
White college	46	53.2 / 51.0	33.2 / 43.0	4.9
Male	96	46.5 / 57.0	32.5 / 31.0	5.3
Female	104	43.0 / 43.0	34.7 / 48.0	6.7
18-34	42	36.8 / 39.0	38.2 / 51.0	7.5
35-49	27	52.8 / 48.0	26.3 / 44.0	8.8
50-64	29	40.8 / 53.0	38.3 / 35.0	6.1
65+	55	44.2 / 54.0	34.0 / 34.0	4.9
White	99	48.8 / 61.0	30.5 / 29.0	6.1
Black	29	28.6 / 10.0	46.7 / 81.0	17.1
Hispanic	67	45.9 / 47.0	31.3 / 40.0	4.9
Democrat (registration)	85	18.2 / 5.0	59.5 / 87.0	13.7
Republican (registration)	80	71.7 / 91.0	10.3 / 3.0	9.7
Independent (registration)	35	46.8 / 35.0	24.2 / 41.0	8.9
Democratic registrants	85	19.7 / 9.1	64.4 / 83.0	9.3
Republican registrants	80	76.6 / 81.6	11.0 / 13.7	3.9
Independent / other registrants	35	52.9 / 35.6	27.3 / 49.3	12.4
White, not Hispanic	99	52.6 / 55.0	33.0 / 38.6	4.0
Black, not Hispanic	29	31.4 / 14.0	51.3 / 67.3	9.3
Asian or Pacific Islander	2	46.8 / 50.0	44.7 / 38.9	3.4
Hispanic	67	50.2 / 43.0	34.2 / 49.6	8.2
Male	96	50.3 / 44.6	35.1 / 48.0	6.5
Female	104	46.7 / 49.4	37.7 / 41.7	3.7
18 to 29	18	33.8 / 23.9	50.7 / 66.3	8.9
30 to 49	27	57.1 / 36.2	28.4 / 52.5	12.4
50 to 69	29	44.0 / 44.7	41.3 / 46.0	2.7
Democratic registrants	85	19.7 / 8.1	64.4 / 85.2	10.4
Republican registrants	80	76.6 / 76.6	11.0 / 12.4	2.0
Independent / other registrants	35	52.9 / 37.4	27.3 / 49.8	11.2
White, not Hispanic	99	52.6 / 53.4	33.0 / 37.2	2.9
Black, not Hispanic	29	31.4 / 14.3	51.3 / 74.1	12.2
Asian or Pacific Islander	2	46.8 / 41.2	44.7 / 58.8	7.1
Hispanic	67	50.2 / 38.7	34.2 / 50.7	8.2
Male	96	50.3 / 46.3	35.1 / 44.3	4.9
Female	104	46.7 / 44.5	37.7 / 44.9	4.1
18 to 29	18	33.8 / 25.3	50.7 / 63.7	7.1
30 to 49	27	57.1 / 34.9	28.4 / 54.3	12.9
50 to 69	29	44.0 / 46.9	41.3 / 41.7	2.3

The government

Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Florida voters

Approve · synthetic38.9%57.1% disapprove

Approve · polls47.0%51.0% disapprove

Net gap−14.2synthetic − polls

Latest polls

Newest first.

Pollster	Fieldwork to	Sample	R	D
St. Pete Polls	OCT 07, 2026	836 (LV)	47.0	45.0
YouGov	OCT 05, 2026	3,813 (LV)	49.0	44.0
Targoz Market Research	OCT 04, 2026	847 (LV)	52.0	42.0
Mason-Dixon	OCT 01, 2026	625 (LV)	50.0	40.0
Change Research (D)	SEP 27, 2026	1,063 (LV)	48.0	47.0
Stetson University	SEP 21, 2026	830 (LV)	51.0	40.0
InsiderAdvantage (R)	SEP 21, 2026	600 (LV)	49.0	42.0
St. Pete Polls	SEP 17, 2026	913 (LV)	45.0	45.0

← United States midterm elections, 2026

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.