Georgia
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+25.1Jon Ossoff
Poll average · 8 pollsD+8.6
Gap+16.4synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Jon Ossoff
53.6 synthetic50.8 polls
Mike Collins
32.1 synthetic42.8 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 5.3 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 6.7 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / YouGov, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| age 18-29 | 25 | 41.2 / 66.3 | 35.4 / 23.8 | 10.6 |
| age 30-44 | 34 | 58.4 / 58.6 | 25.2 / 32.3 | 2.9 |
| age 45-64 | 76 | 52.0 / 47.0 | 32.1 / 46.0 | 5.5 |
| age 65+ | 41 | 54.6 / 42.0 | 28.9 / 52.0 | 9.3 |
| Men | 98 | 48.0 / 48.5 | 33.1 / 44.6 | 5.0 |
| Women | 102 | 54.8 / 53.0 | 28.7 / 38.0 | 3.7 |
| White | 87 | 40.6 / 35.4 | 41.7 / 57.6 | 6.4 |
| Black | 72 | 65.9 / 83.8 | 18.3 / 11.1 | 7.2 |
| Hispanic | 18 | 50.5 / 55.0 | 30.7 / 34.0 | 3.1 |
| Other race | 23 | 47.4 / 52.0 | 30.2 / 35.0 | 4.1 |
| Harris 2024 voters | 64 | 79.9 / 96.0 | 10.0 / 1.0 | 6.4 |
| Trump 2024 voters | 56 | 25.8 / 6.0 | 58.3 / 84.0 | 10.5 |
| White non-college | 58 | 39.3 / 24.0 | 43.0 / 66.0 | 9.2 |
| White college | 29 | 43.0 / 51.0 | 39.1 / 44.0 | 5.4 |
| age 18-29 | 25 | 44.6 / 53.4 | 38.4 / 35.2 | 5.9 |
| age 50-64 | 27 | 58.0 / 48.5 | 32.2 / 44.7 | 8.3 |
| age 65+ | 41 | 56.9 / 40.6 | 30.1 / 52.4 | 14.9 |
| Female | 102 | 57.6 / 54.2 | 30.1 / 38.8 | 5.8 |
| Male | 98 | 50.9 / 45.1 | 35.1 / 48.7 | 9.0 |
| Asian | 10 | 60.6 / 63.0 | 24.4 / 14.1 | 6.9 |
| Black | 72 | 69.1 / 60.5 | 19.1 / 33.1 | 9.3 |
| Hispanic | 18 | 52.7 / 62.5 | 32.0 / 33.5 | 7.5 |
| Other | 13 | 44.5 / 45.1 | 39.9 / 32.9 | 4.7 |
| White | 87 | 42.8 / 43.2 | 44.0 / 51.0 | 4.9 |
| Democrats | 85 | 89.1 / 92.9 | 10.9 / 7.1 | 3.7 |
| Republicans | 75 | 24.6 / 15.3 | 75.4 / 84.7 | 9.3 |
| Unaffiliated | 40 | 55.9 / 51.0 | 24.0 / 34.0 | 6.7 |
| White | 87 | 49.3 / 36.2 | 50.7 / 63.8 | 13.2 |
| Black | 72 | 78.3 / 87.5 | 21.7 / 12.5 | 9.2 |
| Hispanic | 18 | 62.2 / 64.8 | 37.8 / 35.2 | 2.6 |
| Other minorities | 23 | 61.0 / 61.8 | 39.0 / 38.2 | 0.8 |
| Women | 102 | 65.7 / 57.9 | 34.3 / 42.1 | 7.8 |
| Men | 98 | 59.1 / 51.1 | 40.9 / 48.9 | 8.1 |
| age 65+ | 41 | 65.4 / 40.4 | 34.6 / 59.6 | 25.0 |
| Harris 2024 voters (Ossoff share) | 64 | 100.0 / 100.0 | — | 0.0 |
| Trump 2024 voters (Collins share) | 56 | — | 100.0 / 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Harris 2024 voters (Collins share) | 64 | — | 100.0 / 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Trump 2024 voters (Ossoff share) | 56 | 100.0 / 100.0 | — | 0.0 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Georgia voters
Approve · synthetic32.3%63.6% disapprove
Approve · polls36.0%59.5% disapprove
Net gap−7.8synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | OCT 03, 2026 | 600 (LV) | 55.0 | 45.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | SEP 23, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 50.0 | 42.0 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | SEP 23, 2026 | 678 (LV) | 52.0 | 41.0 |
| YouGov | SEP 18, 2026 | 3,301 (LV) | 52.0 | 42.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | SEP 16, 2026 | 645 (LV) | 48.0 | 44.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | SEP 14, 2026 | 1,019 (LV) | 51.0 | 42.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | SEP 12, 2026 | 1,091 (LV) | 49.0 | 43.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | AUG 17, 2026 | 800 (LV) | 50.0 | 43.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.