Alaska
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+1.5Mary Peltola
Poll average · 10 pollsD+2.7
Gap−1.2synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Mary Peltola
46.4 synthetic46.3 polls
Dan Sullivan
45.0 synthetic43.9 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 2.1 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 7.0 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Data for Progress (D), shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 67 | 74.4 / 89.9 | 19.2 / 4.0 | 7.8 |
| Independent / third party | 48 | 49.4 / 60.0 | 39.5 / 29.0 | 7.5 |
| Republican | 85 | 21.9 / 5.0 | 69.2 / 77.0 | 9.3 |
| Female | 77 | 50.3 / 54.5 | 41.8 / 35.6 | 3.9 |
| Male | 123 | 43.9 / 39.0 | 47.1 / 46.0 | 3.9 |
| Under 45 | 101 | 43.5 / 60.0 | 47.0 / 22.0 | 12.5 |
| 45+ | 99 | 49.3 / 40.0 | 43.1 / 51.0 | 6.5 |
| No college | 144 | 43.8 / 43.0 | 47.0 / 42.0 | 3.9 |
| College | 56 | 53.0 / 53.0 | 40.1 / 40.0 | 1.0 |
| American Indian or Alaska Native | 43 | 46.4 / 53.0 | 44.4 / 35.0 | 4.7 |
| White | 117 | 44.1 / 48.0 | 47.4 / 43.0 | 4.3 |
| Anchorage | 78 | 45.7 / 53.0 | 44.3 / 35.0 | 6.0 |
| Kenai Peninsula | 15 | 45.9 / 41.6 | 46.7 / 47.5 | 3.9 |
| Mat-Su | 31 | 44.8 / 28.0 | 47.3 / 59.0 | 8.4 |
| Fairbanks North Star | 28 | 40.0 / 47.0 | 52.0 / 37.0 | 8.5 |
| Southeast | 22 | 62.0 / 55.6 | 30.2 / 34.3 | 5.0 |
| Rest of state | 26 | 44.3 / 46.5 | 48.5 / 41.4 | 4.6 |
| Democrat | 67 | 79.5 / 95.0 | 20.5 / 5.0 | 15.5 |
| Independent / third party | 48 | 55.6 / 68.0 | 44.4 / 32.0 | 12.4 |
| Republican | 85 | 24.0 / 7.0 | 76.0 / 93.0 | 17.0 |
| Female | 77 | 54.6 / 61.0 | 45.4 / 39.0 | 6.4 |
| Male | 123 | 48.3 / 45.0 | 51.7 / 55.0 | 3.3 |
| Under 45 | 101 | 48.1 / 70.0 | 51.9 / 30.0 | 21.9 |
| 45+ | 99 | 53.4 / 45.0 | 46.6 / 55.0 | 8.4 |
| No college | 144 | 48.2 / 50.0 | 51.8 / 50.0 | 1.8 |
| College | 56 | 57.0 / 57.0 | 43.0 / 43.0 | 0.1 |
| American Indian or Alaska Native | 43 | 51.1 / 57.0 | 48.9 / 43.0 | 5.9 |
| White | 117 | 48.2 / 53.0 | 51.8 / 47.0 | 4.8 |
| Anchorage | 78 | 50.8 / 62.0 | 49.2 / 38.0 | 11.2 |
| Kenai Peninsula | 15 | 49.6 / 47.0 | 50.4 / 53.0 | 2.6 |
| Mat-Su | 31 | 48.6 / 32.0 | 51.4 / 68.0 | 16.6 |
| Fairbanks North Star | 28 | 43.5 / 50.0 | 56.5 / 50.0 | 6.5 |
| Southeast | 22 | 67.2 / 64.0 | 32.8 / 36.0 | 3.2 |
| Rest of state | 26 | 47.7 / 49.0 | 52.3 / 51.0 | 1.3 |
| 18-29 | 25 | 48.3 / 48.3 | 41.1 / 38.6 | 1.9 |
| 50-64 | 29 | 57.6 / 44.8 | 36.1 / 48.9 | 7.1 |
| 65+ | 38 | 46.6 / 41.2 | 45.4 / 53.4 | 5.2 |
| Female | 77 | 50.3 / 50.9 | 41.8 / 42.4 | 1.4 |
| Male | 123 | 43.9 / 40.4 | 47.1 / 51.2 | 3.6 |
| White | 117 | 44.1 / 47.4 | 47.4 / 44.7 | 3.1 |
| Other | 49 | 47.6 / 37.3 | 43.3 / 55.4 | 6.3 |
| Hispanic | 13 | 50.1 / 43.1 | 40.4 / 56.9 | 8.3 |
| Asian | 16 | 45.9 / 49.1 | 46.4 / 39.6 | 4.0 |
| Black | 5 | 78.4 / 28.5 | 14.3 / 56.3 | 25.4 |
| 50+ (initial ballot) | 67 | 51.5 / 42.0 | 41.3 / 49.0 | 5.8 |
| 50+ (ranked-choice final round) | 67 | 55.5 / 46.0 | 44.5 / 54.0 | 9.5 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Alaska voters
Approve · synthetic36.8%58.6% disapprove
Approve · polls47.0%51.3% disapprove
Net gap−17.5synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R | U | Gerald L. Heikes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | OCT 10, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 48.0 | 43.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | OCT 03, 2026 | 1,512 (LV) | 47.0 | 45.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | OCT 01, 2026 | 504 (LV) | 50.0 | 43.0 | — | — |
| Quantus Insights (R) | SEP 30, 2026 | 758 (LV) | 46.0 | 46.0 | — | — |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | SEP 24, 2026 | 1,079 (LV) | 46.0 | 47.0 | — | — |
| co/efficient (R) | SEP 17, 2026 | 799 (LV) | 46.0 | 48.0 | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | SEP 14, 2026 | 1,188 (LV) | 39.0 | 39.0 | — | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | SEP 12, 2026 | 1,352 (LV) | 48.0 | 44.0 | — | — |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.