North Carolina
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+21.4Roy Cooper
Poll average · 17 pollsD+10.1
Gap+11.3synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Roy Cooper
56.0 synthetic49.4 polls
Michael Whatley
36.3 synthetic40.3 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 3.3 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 4.5 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / East Carolina University, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 79 | 24.7 / 5.1 | 64.9 / 89.9 | 10.0 |
| Democrat | 80 | 81.7 / 94.9 | 10.4 / 0.0 | 5.3 |
| Independent | 41 | 58.1 / 52.0 | 26.2 / 36.0 | 4.2 |
| Eastern and coastal NC | 37 | 51.8 / 43.6 | 38.6 / 45.5 | 4.5 |
| Raleigh-Durham incl. Fayetteville | 60 | 60.9 / 62.0 | 30.0 / 29.0 | 0.5 |
| Charlotte area | 45 | 55.0 / 57.4 | 34.1 / 39.6 | 3.1 |
| Piedmont / central NC | 32 | 48.0 / 44.4 | 38.8 / 48.5 | 3.9 |
| Western NC | 26 | 49.5 / 38.6 | 40.1 / 53.5 | 5.4 |
| Hispanic | 12 | 67.2 / 52.0 | 24.0 / 41.0 | 6.8 |
| White | 123 | 46.4 / 39.4 | 43.6 / 53.5 | 4.0 |
| Black | 40 | 70.4 / 82.0 | 17.9 / 10.0 | 4.6 |
| Asian / other | 25 | 62.2 / 72.0 | 26.3 / 22.0 | 3.9 |
| Male | 98 | 56.3 / 44.0 | 33.0 / 49.0 | 6.4 |
| Female | 102 | 52.6 / 54.5 | 37.3 / 37.4 | 1.1 |
| White men | 64 | 49.6 / 35.6 | 39.7 / 57.4 | 7.1 |
| White women | 59 | 43.1 / 43.4 | 47.7 / 48.5 | 1.4 |
| Black men | 20 | 72.4 / 73.0 | 15.6 / 17.0 | 0.8 |
| Black women | 20 | 68.3 / 88.0 | 20.3 / 6.0 | 7.9 |
| Hispanic men | 5 | 67.4 / 42.0 | 25.1 / 54.0 | 11.8 |
| Hispanic women | 7 | 67.0 / 58.0 | 23.3 / 30.0 | 4.2 |
| No four-year degree | 132 | 54.2 / 44.0 | 34.6 / 48.0 | 5.3 |
| Four-year degree | 68 | 54.6 / 57.4 | 36.3 / 34.7 | 1.1 |
| age 18-29 | 24 | 62.2 / 54.5 | 24.5 / 31.7 | 3.7 |
| age 30-44 | 33 | 60.9 / 63.4 | 29.7 / 28.7 | 1.4 |
| age 45-64 | 74 | 51.5 / 43.6 | 38.8 / 47.5 | 3.5 |
| age 65+ | 46 | 48.7 / 45.0 | 41.2 / 51.0 | 3.9 |
| Republican | 79 | 24.5 / 10.9 | 64.2 / 78.2 | 6.2 |
| Democrat | 80 | 81.2 / 85.0 | 10.3 / 1.0 | 4.2 |
| Independent | 41 | 57.4 / 44.6 | 25.9 / 33.7 | 4.7 |
| Eastern and coastal NC | 37 | 51.3 / 44.4 | 38.3 / 36.4 | 3.9 |
| Raleigh-Durham incl. Fayetteville | 60 | 60.5 / 57.0 | 29.8 / 29.0 | 2.1 |
| Charlotte area | 45 | 54.6 / 49.0 | 33.9 / 33.0 | 2.6 |
| Piedmont / central NC | 32 | 47.4 / 38.6 | 38.4 / 42.6 | 4.4 |
| Western NC | 26 | 49.0 / 37.0 | 39.7 / 55.0 | 5.4 |
| Hispanic | 12 | 66.8 / 53.0 | 23.9 / 36.0 | 6.1 |
| White | 123 | 46.1 / 39.0 | 43.2 / 47.0 | 3.3 |
| Black | 40 | 69.8 / 70.7 | 17.8 / 9.1 | 3.7 |
| Asian | 10 | 67.3 / 50.0 | 22.0 / 36.0 | 7.2 |
| Male | 98 | 55.8 / 42.4 | 32.7 / 45.5 | 5.4 |
| Female | 102 | 52.2 / 48.5 | 37.0 / 32.7 | 3.6 |
| White men | 64 | 49.1 / 35.4 | 39.4 / 52.5 | 5.6 |
| White women | 59 | 42.8 / 42.4 | 47.3 / 42.4 | 3.0 |
| Black men | 20 | 71.9 / 74.0 | 15.5 / 15.0 | 1.7 |
| Black women | 20 | 67.7 / 69.0 | 20.1 / 5.0 | 5.7 |
| HS or less | 79 | 57.1 / 40.0 | 30.9 / 47.0 | 7.0 |
| Some college / associate | 53 | 48.8 / 40.6 | 39.3 / 44.6 | 3.5 |
| age 18-29 | 24 | 61.5 / 48.5 | 24.3 / 27.3 | 5.8 |
| age 30-44 | 33 | 60.4 / 47.0 | 29.5 / 33.0 | 4.5 |
| age 45-64 | 74 | 51.1 / 46.0 | 38.5 / 39.0 | 2.6 |
| age 65+ | 46 | 48.3 / 42.0 | 40.9 / 48.0 | 3.5 |
| age 18-29 | 24 | 61.4 / 62.0 | 24.3 / 28.0 | 2.5 |
| age 30-44 | 33 | 60.9 / 60.4 | 29.7 / 31.7 | 0.9 |
| age 45-64 | 74 | 52.1 / 47.5 | 39.3 / 46.5 | 2.9 |
| age 65+ | 46 | 48.9 / 47.0 | 41.4 / 47.0 | 2.3 |
| Men | 98 | 56.6 / 47.0 | 33.2 / 45.0 | 5.2 |
| Women | 102 | 52.9 / 56.4 | 37.6 / 37.6 | 1.4 |
| White | 123 | 46.7 / 44.0 | 43.9 / 49.0 | 2.1 |
| Black | 40 | 70.2 / 85.0 | 17.9 / 8.0 | 5.9 |
| Hispanic | 12 | 68.9 / 57.0 | 24.7 / 32.0 | 5.0 |
| Other race | 25 | 62.9 / 51.5 | 26.6 / 40.4 | 5.9 |
| Harris 2024 voters | 64 | 83.6 / 98.0 | 11.6 / 0.0 | 5.7 |
| Trump 2024 voters | 66 | 27.4 / 7.0 | 64.8 / 83.0 | 8.2 |
| White non-college | 74 | 44.3 / 34.7 | 44.5 / 57.4 | 5.2 |
| White college | 49 | 50.3 / 57.6 | 42.9 / 37.4 | 3.0 |
| age 18-29 | 24 | 62.2 / 54.6 | 24.5 / 36.6 | 4.8 |
| age 50-64 | 26 | 55.7 / 42.3 | 33.4 / 49.1 | 6.4 |
| age 65+ | 46 | 48.7 / 41.7 | 41.2 / 49.2 | 3.2 |
| Female | 102 | 52.6 / 54.1 | 37.3 / 35.3 | 1.2 |
| Male | 98 | 56.3 / 41.7 | 33.0 / 50.1 | 6.8 |
| Asian | 10 | 68.0 / 32.0 | 22.2 / 68.0 | 18.3 |
| Black | 40 | 70.4 / 63.5 | 17.9 / 25.3 | 4.0 |
| Hispanic | 12 | 67.2 / 53.9 | 24.0 / 32.6 | 6.9 |
| Other | 15 | 58.3 / 54.6 | 29.1 / 26.5 | 3.7 |
| White | 123 | 46.4 / 43.8 | 43.6 / 47.3 | 1.6 |
| Western | 26 | 51.1 / 50.5 | 41.4 / 44.4 | 1.5 |
| Greensboro | 32 | 49.5 / 52.5 | 40.1 / 39.4 | 4.0 |
| Raleigh | 60 | 62.4 / 57.0 | 30.7 / 36.0 | 2.8 |
| Eastern | 37 | 53.4 / 42.6 | 39.8 / 50.5 | 5.4 |
| Male | 98 | 58.1 / 44.6 | 34.0 / 46.5 | 6.8 |
| Female | 102 | 54.1 / 57.0 | 38.4 / 37.0 | 2.0 |
| age 18-24 | 24 | 64.4 / 53.5 | 25.4 / 23.2 | 6.5 |
| age 25-34 | 23 | 60.3 / 69.0 | 30.9 / 20.0 | 6.0 |
| age 35-44 | 33 | 62.6 / 67.0 | 30.6 / 30.0 | 2.3 |
| age 45-54 | 48 | 50.7 / 45.0 | 42.8 / 47.0 | 3.2 |
| age 55-64 | 26 | 57.5 / 47.5 | 34.5 / 49.5 | 7.6 |
| age 65+ | 46 | 50.1 / 45.0 | 42.4 / 48.0 | 3.4 |
| White | 123 | 47.9 / 45.0 | 44.9 / 49.0 | 2.1 |
| Nonwhite | 77 | 69.3 / 72.0 | 22.3 / 18.0 | 2.9 |
| HS or less | 79 | 59.5 / 40.6 | 32.2 / 47.5 | 9.4 |
| Some college / associate | 53 | 50.9 / 50.0 | 41.0 / 45.0 | 2.5 |
| Independents | 41 | 68.9 / 63.2 | 31.1 / 36.8 | 5.7 |
| Democrats (Cooper share) | 80 | 100.0 / 100.0 | — | 0.0 |
| Republicans (Whatley share) | 79 | — | 100.0 / 100.0 | 0.0 |
| age 50+ | 72 | 57.1 / 46.9 | 42.9 / 53.1 | 10.3 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among North Carolina voters
Approve · synthetic34.2%62.4% disapprove
Approve · polls40.7%55.3% disapprove
Net gap−13.6synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina University | OCT 03, 2026 | 810 (LV) | 50.0 | 43.0 |
| Big Data Poll | SEP 29, 2026 | 642 (LV) | 47.0 | 35.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | SEP 22, 2026 | 686 (LV) | 48.0 | 43.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) for AARP | SEP 20, 2026 | 1,806 (LV) | 53.0 | 42.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | SEP 20, 2026 | 857 (LV) | 51.0 | 41.0 |
| YouGov | SEP 18, 2026 | 3,742 (LV) | 53.0 | 41.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | SEP 17, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 48.0 | 43.0 |
| High Point University | SEP 16, 2026 | 706 (LV) | 50.0 | 42.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.