Texas's 23rd congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
SyntheticR+2.3Brandon Herrera
Poll average · 1 pollsR+2.0
Gap−0.3synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Brandon Herrera
44.3 synthetic42.0 polls
Katy Padilla Stout
42.1 synthetic40.0 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 2.9 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 6.6 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Public Policy Polling (D) for House Majority PAC, shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | D | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hispanic or Latino | 81 | 43.7 / 39.0 | 42.5 / 41.0 | 4.2 |
| White | 84 | 49.6 / 51.0 | 37.1 / 34.0 | 2.1 |
| Other race | 35 | 32.9 / 25.7 | 53.0 / 54.5 | 4.8 |
| Women | 84 | 40.3 / 35.0 | 45.1 / 46.0 | 3.5 |
| Men | 116 | 47.2 / 50.0 | 39.9 / 33.0 | 4.6 |
| 18-45 | 99 | 42.7 / 26.7 | 43.0 / 48.5 | 10.6 |
| 46-65 | 29 | 38.3 / 47.0 | 49.5 / 36.0 | 9.0 |
| Older than 65 | 35 | 54.9 / 51.0 | 33.1 / 36.0 | 2.6 |
| High school or less | 83 | 51.2 / 50.0 | 33.7 / 29.0 | 3.9 |
| Some college | 54 | 39.6 / 43.4 | 48.3 / 39.4 | 5.9 |
| 2-year degree | 54 | 39.6 / 47.5 | 48.3 / 34.3 | 9.3 |
| 4-year degree | 63 | 39.6 / 40.0 | 47.4 / 41.0 | 4.3 |
| Post-graduate | 63 | 39.6 / 34.0 | 47.4 / 50.0 | 3.8 |
| Democrats | 70 | 15.1 / 3.0 | 74.2 / 79.0 | 8.1 |
| Republicans | 87 | 71.6 / 80.0 | 15.1 / 9.0 | 5.6 |
| Independents | 43 | 36.6 / 40.0 | 43.9 / 34.0 | 6.6 |
| Trump 2024 voters | 57 | 71.6 / 81.0 | 16.6 / 7.0 | 6.4 |
| Harris 2024 voters | 41 | 17.7 / 1.0 | 73.8 / 80.0 | 11.1 |
| Someone else / did not vote | 102 | 39.6 / 9.9 | 43.3 / 48.5 | 19.8 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, TX-23 (2026 lines)
Approve · synthetic34.2%61.6% disapprove
Approve · polls47.0%50.0% disapprove
Net gap−24.4synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | MAR 11, 2026 | 521 (V) | 42.0 | 40.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.