Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+3.2Bob Brooks
Poll average · 2 pollsD+5.1
Gap−1.9synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Bob Brooks
46.8 synthetic45.8 polls
Ryan Mackenzie
43.9 synthetic41.3 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 2.4 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 7.6 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Franklin & Marshall College, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican (registration) | 79 | 18.3 / 7.0 | 72.7 / 87.0 | 9.5 |
| Democrat (registration) | 92 | 72.0 / 84.0 | 20.5 / 8.0 | 8.3 |
| Independent or something else (registration) | 29 | 42.3 / 40.0 | 41.3 / 25.0 | 12.4 |
| Female | 102 | 47.7 / 54.0 | 43.8 / 37.0 | 4.5 |
| Male | 98 | 45.9 / 35.0 | 44.0 / 43.0 | 7.9 |
| Under 35 | 47 | 47.9 / 49.0 | 41.5 / 20.0 | 14.4 |
| 35-54 | 72 | 51.1 / 43.0 | 40.1 / 43.0 | 5.4 |
| Over 55 | 81 | 42.4 / 45.0 | 48.6 / 48.0 | 1.8 |
| HS or less | 80 | 42.6 / 32.3 | 47.6 / 36.4 | 14.3 |
| Some college | 49 | 45.5 / 44.0 | 44.9 / 45.0 | 1.0 |
| College degree | 71 | 52.4 / 52.0 | 39.1 / 37.0 | 1.6 |
| White | 149 | 44.3 / 45.0 | 46.7 / 43.0 | 2.4 |
| Hispanic | 19 | 45.6 / 50.0 | 44.4 / 22.0 | 14.9 |
| Black/Other | 32 | 59.1 / 33.1 | 30.9 / 33.1 | 17.4 |
| White, no college degree | 91 | 40.4 / 41.0 | 50.4 / 46.0 | 2.9 |
| White, college degree | 58 | 50.4 / 53.0 | 40.8 / 34.0 | 4.6 |
| Income over $75,000 | 111 | 44.5 / 50.0 | 46.5 / 39.0 | 5.0 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President
Approve · synthetic32.8%63.6% disapprove
Approve · polls38.0%59.0% disapprove
Net gap−9.8synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | SEP 20, 2026 | 357 (RV) | 45.0 | 40.0 |
| GBAO (D) | JUL 02, 2026 | 550 (LV) | 47.0 | 43.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.