Maine's 2nd congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+22.1Matt Dunlap
Poll average · 4 pollsD+1.7
Gap+20.4synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Matt Dunlap
57.1 synthetic49.4 polls
Paul LePage
36.4 synthetic47.7 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 7.5 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- —
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among voters in Maine's 2nd district
Approve · synthetic30.8%65.5% disapprove
Approve · polls50.0%48.0% disapprove
Net gap−36.7synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) | SEP 30, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 50.0 | 48.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | SEP 21, 2026 | 627 (LV) | 51.0 | 45.0 |
| Impact Research (D) | SEP 12, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 49.0 | 49.0 |
| DCCC Targeting Team (D) | AUG 13, 2026 | 621 (LV) | 48.0 | 49.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | JUL 16, 2026 | 600 (LV) | 49.0 | 48.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | APR 28, 2026 | 918 (LV) | 40.0 | 50.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | FEB 16, 2026 | 521 (LV) | 46.0 | 47.0 |
| The Mellman Group (D) | JUN 10, 2025 | 400 (LV) | 37.0 | 47.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.