New Mexico
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+65.5Ben Ray Luján
Poll average · 2 pollsD+18.2
Gap+47.3synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Ben Ray Luján
71.3 synthetic53.5 polls
Larry Marker
14.8 synthetic37.0 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 14.8 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 14.4 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / SurveyUSA for KOB-TV, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| men | 93 | 69.9 / 47.5 | 14.2 / 44.4 | 20.2 |
| women | 107 | 72.5 / 61.4 | 15.4 / 26.7 | 7.6 |
| 18-34 | 47 | 65.6 / 63.6 | 14.8 / 22.2 | 5.0 |
| 35-49 | 31 | 72.7 / 58.0 | 13.9 / 34.0 | 13.4 |
| 50-64 | 23 | 76.6 / 45.5 | 11.8 / 41.4 | 20.8 |
| 65+ | 54 | 75.2 / 53.0 | 13.4 / 41.0 | 18.4 |
| 18-49 | 78 | 68.5 / 60.6 | 14.4 / 28.3 | 9.2 |
| 50+ | 77 | 75.7 / 50.0 | 12.9 / 41.0 | 18.7 |
| White | 75 | 64.6 / 48.0 | 21.1 / 43.0 | 14.6 |
| Hispanic | 87 | 76.2 / 61.4 | 10.5 / 29.7 | 12.8 |
| Other | 38 | 72.9 / 57.0 | 12.5 / 27.0 | 10.6 |
| Republicans | 65 | 46.7 / 11.0 | 34.0 / 78.0 | 29.4 |
| Democrats | 90 | 88.1 / 90.1 | 4.4 / 5.9 | 2.4 |
| Independents | 45 | 70.0 / 53.0 | 10.1 / 30.0 | 13.3 |
| 2024 Trump voters | 50 | 56.6 / 10.1 | 28.2 / 79.8 | 34.4 |
| 2024 Harris voters | 59 | 90.2 / 94.0 | 4.0 / 2.0 | 2.5 |
| high school or less | 74 | 71.2 / 46.0 | 14.1 / 42.0 | 18.6 |
| some college | 61 | 69.6 / 50.0 | 15.3 / 39.0 | 15.8 |
| 4-year college degree | 65 | 72.9 / 64.0 | 15.2 / 28.0 | 8.5 |
| income under $40K | 21 | 74.8 / 54.0 | 12.6 / 30.0 | 13.8 |
| income over $80K | 71 | 72.1 / 56.0 | 14.4 / 37.0 | 15.1 |
| homeowners | 147 | 72.5 / 53.0 | 14.4 / 39.0 | 16.4 |
| renters | 44 | 68.3 / 58.4 | 15.8 / 24.8 | 6.6 |
| Independents | 45 | 87.4 / 69.1 | 12.6 / 30.9 | 18.2 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among New Mexico voters
Approve · synthetic26.5%68.7% disapprove
Approve · polls32.7%61.2% disapprove
Net gap−13.7synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KOB-TV | SEP 30, 2026 | 567 (LV) | 54.0 | 36.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | AUG 28, 2026 | 516 (LV) | 53.0 | 38.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.