Maine
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+4.8Troy Jackson
Poll average · 20 pollsD+2.3
Gap+2.5synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Troy Jackson
48.0 synthetic49.1 polls
Susan Collins
43.7 synthetic46.9 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 2.8 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 6.5 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Marist University, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 89 | 82.0 / 94.9 | 11.3 / 4.0 | 8.7 |
| Republican | 81 | 14.3 / 3.0 | 77.7 / 97.0 | 12.9 |
| Independent | 30 | 36.6 / 52.5 | 49.3 / 45.5 | 10.6 |
| CD1 (excluding Kennebec) | 92 | 44.3 / 60.6 | 47.3 / 38.4 | 10.9 |
| CD2 (excluding Kennebec) | 89 | 51.6 / 41.8 | 40.2 / 57.1 | 11.3 |
| Kennebec County | 19 | 49.5 / 44.6 | 42.0 / 52.5 | 7.0 |
| Household income under $100k | 105 | 47.4 / 48.5 | 43.1 / 50.5 | 5.6 |
| Household income $100k+ | 89 | 48.9 / 56.6 | 44.0 / 42.4 | 5.1 |
| Not college graduate | 126 | 44.9 / 38.4 | 45.9 / 60.6 | 9.8 |
| College graduate | 74 | 53.3 / 72.0 | 39.9 / 26.0 | 12.5 |
| White | 181 | 47.2 / 53.5 | 44.5 / 45.5 | 4.8 |
| Non-white | 19 | 55.9 / 21.2 | 35.5 / 75.8 | 26.8 |
| White, not college graduate | 113 | 43.9 / 39.4 | 46.9 / 59.6 | 8.5 |
| White, college graduate | 68 | 52.7 / 75.8 | 40.7 / 23.2 | 15.4 |
| Men, White, not college | 56 | 44.2 / 40.0 | 47.3 / 59.0 | 7.8 |
| Men, White, college | 33 | 48.7 / 70.7 | 43.6 / 28.3 | 14.7 |
| Women, White, not college | 57 | 43.5 / 39.2 | 46.5 / 59.8 | 8.8 |
| Women, White, college | 35 | 56.4 / 79.6 | 37.9 / 19.4 | 15.4 |
| Under 45 | 65 | 51.4 / 67.0 | 39.2 / 32.0 | 10.4 |
| 45 or older | 135 | 46.5 / 44.4 | 45.8 / 54.5 | 5.8 |
| 30 to 44 | 25 | 54.8 / 64.3 | 39.0 / 34.7 | 6.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 79 | 48.2 / 39.4 | 43.5 / 59.6 | 10.7 |
| 65 or older | 56 | 44.0 / 48.5 | 48.9 / 49.5 | 3.4 |
| Men | 96 | 47.2 / 50.0 | 44.6 / 49.0 | 4.8 |
| Women | 104 | 48.8 / 52.5 | 42.8 / 45.5 | 4.2 |
| Men | 96 | 47.2 / 50.0 | 44.6 / 45.9 | 2.7 |
| Women | 104 | 48.8 / 49.0 | 42.8 / 42.9 | 0.1 |
| 18-44 | 65 | 51.4 / 60.4 | 39.2 / 30.2 | 6.0 |
| 45-64 | 79 | 48.2 / 43.4 | 43.5 / 51.5 | 5.3 |
| 65+ | 56 | 44.0 / 44.4 | 48.9 / 50.5 | 1.4 |
| No 4-year degree | 126 | 44.9 / 40.6 | 45.9 / 52.1 | 4.1 |
| 4-year degree or more | 74 | 53.3 / 62.4 | 39.9 / 31.7 | 6.1 |
| Income under $50k | 55 | 45.8 / 47.4 | 46.4 / 40.0 | 4.3 |
| Income $50k-$100k | 50 | 49.2 / 44.0 | 39.4 / 54.0 | 9.7 |
| Income $100k+ | 89 | 48.9 / 59.0 | 44.0 / 37.0 | 6.8 |
| Democrat (leaned) | 89 | 82.0 / 88.8 | 11.3 / 6.1 | 4.5 |
| Republican (leaned) | 81 | 14.3 / 6.0 | 77.7 / 92.0 | 9.5 |
| Independent | 30 | 36.6 / 42.6 | 49.3 / 34.0 | 10.2 |
| Voted Trump 2024 | 65 | 15.6 / 10.1 | 77.0 / 87.9 | 7.3 |
| Voted Harris 2024 | 76 | 79.7 / 87.9 | 14.7 / 8.1 | 5.5 |
| Other / did not vote 2024 | 59 | 42.2 / 38.7 | 44.7 / 35.5 | 8.5 |
| Own home | 151 | 51.5 / 49.5 | 40.9 / 44.4 | 2.4 |
| Rent | 42 | 36.2 / 49.0 | 52.5 / 42.7 | 8.5 |
| Men | 96 | 47.2 / 41.8 | 44.6 / 54.1 | 6.3 |
| Women | 104 | 48.8 / 55.7 | 42.8 / 40.2 | 4.6 |
| White | 181 | 47.2 / 50.5 | 44.5 / 46.4 | 3.4 |
| 35-49 | 25 | 54.8 / 53.1 | 39.0 / 39.8 | 1.1 |
| 50-64 | 35 | 42.7 / 40.2 | 48.3 / 54.6 | 4.2 |
| 65+ | 56 | 44.0 / 49.5 | 48.9 / 48.5 | 3.7 |
| Under 45 | 65 | 51.4 / 59.8 | 39.2 / 34.0 | 5.6 |
| 45+ | 135 | 46.5 / 45.4 | 45.8 / 51.5 | 3.9 |
| Income under $50k | 55 | 45.8 / 49.5 | 46.4 / 46.4 | 2.5 |
| Income $50k+ | 139 | 49.0 / 50.5 | 42.4 / 45.4 | 3.0 |
| Non-college graduate | 126 | 44.9 / 39.6 | 45.9 / 55.2 | 6.2 |
| College graduate | 74 | 53.3 / 62.2 | 39.9 / 35.7 | 6.0 |
| White non-college | 113 | 43.9 / 40.6 | 46.9 / 54.2 | 4.8 |
| White college graduate | 68 | 52.7 / 62.2 | 40.7 / 36.7 | 6.4 |
| Democrat or lean Democrat | 89 | 82.0 / 91.8 | 11.3 / 6.1 | 6.6 |
| Republican or lean Republican | 81 | 14.3 / 3.1 | 77.7 / 93.9 | 10.8 |
| Independent / other (no lean asked here) | 30 | 36.6 / 48.9 | 49.3 / 44.7 | 8.2 |
| Men | 96 | 47.2 / 48.0 | 44.6 / 48.0 | 2.7 |
| Women | 104 | 48.8 / 50.0 | 42.8 / 46.0 | 2.9 |
| White | 181 | 47.2 / 48.5 | 44.5 / 47.5 | 2.8 |
| Under 35 | 40 | 49.3 / 61.0 | 39.3 / 37.0 | 7.8 |
| 65+ | 56 | 44.0 / 46.5 | 48.9 / 45.5 | 2.3 |
| Under 45 | 65 | 51.4 / 58.0 | 39.2 / 40.0 | 4.9 |
| 45+ | 135 | 46.5 / 44.4 | 45.8 / 50.5 | 3.1 |
| Democrat | 89 | 82.0 / 87.9 | 11.3 / 8.1 | 3.9 |
| Republican | 81 | 14.3 / 8.1 | 77.7 / 88.9 | 7.5 |
| Independent | 30 | 36.6 / 46.9 | 49.3 / 42.9 | 6.9 |
| Income under $50k | 55 | 45.8 / 48.0 | 46.4 / 46.0 | 1.5 |
| Income $50k-$99k | 50 | 49.2 / 46.5 | 39.4 / 48.5 | 6.0 |
| Income $100k+ | 89 | 48.9 / 53.5 | 44.0 / 44.4 | 3.4 |
| College degree | 74 | 53.3 / 57.6 | 39.9 / 40.4 | 3.2 |
| No degree | 126 | 44.9 / 42.4 | 45.9 / 51.5 | 3.7 |
| Union household | 16 | 37.7 / 57.4 | 53.2 / 39.6 | 13.1 |
| Male | 96 | 51.4 / 46.0 | 48.6 / 54.0 | 5.4 |
| Female | 104 | 53.3 / 55.0 | 46.7 / 45.0 | 1.7 |
| 18-34 | 40 | 55.6 / 57.0 | 44.4 / 43.0 | 1.4 |
| 35-64 | 104 | 54.0 / 49.0 | 46.0 / 51.0 | 5.0 |
| 65+ | 56 | 47.3 / 51.0 | 52.7 / 49.0 | 3.7 |
| White, no degree | 113 | 48.3 / 45.0 | 51.7 / 55.0 | 3.3 |
| White, 4-year degree+ | 68 | 56.5 / 60.6 | 43.5 / 39.4 | 4.2 |
| Democrat | 89 | 87.9 / 91.0 | 12.1 / 9.0 | 3.1 |
| Independent | 30 | 42.6 / 53.5 | 57.4 / 46.5 | 10.9 |
| Republican | 81 | 15.6 / 5.0 | 84.4 / 95.0 | 10.6 |
| CD1 | 92 | 48.3 / 58.1 | 51.7 / 41.9 | 9.7 |
| CD2 | 89 | 56.2 / 41.1 | 43.8 / 58.9 | 15.1 |
| Men | 96 | 51.4 / 43.4 | 48.6 / 56.6 | 8.1 |
| Women | 104 | 53.3 / 55.4 | 46.7 / 44.6 | 2.1 |
| 30-44 | 25 | 58.4 / 59.3 | 41.6 / 40.7 | 0.9 |
| Unaffiliated | 30 | 36.6 / 45.0 | 49.3 / 42.0 | 5.6 |
| Voters 50+ | 91 | 47.2 / 45.4 | 52.8 / 54.6 | 1.8 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Maine voters
Approve · synthetic30.7%66.2% disapprove
Approve · polls36.5%63.0% disapprove
Net gap−9.0synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | OCT 08, 2026 | 804 (LV) | 49.0 | 47.0 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | OCT 05, 2026 | 800 (LV) | 50.0 | 46.0 |
| Marist University | OCT 04, 2026 | 1,505 (RV) | 51.0 | 47.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | OCT 01, 2026 | 1,091 (LV) | 46.0 | 46.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | OCT 01, 2026 | 400 (LV) | 52.0 | 48.0 |
| CBS News/YouGov | OCT 01, 2026 | 1,136 (LV) | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | SEP 30, 2026 | 1,240 (LV) | 46.0 | 48.0 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | SEP 29, 2026 | 684 (LV) | 49.0 | 47.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.