New Hampshire
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+21.4Chris Pappas
Poll average · 11 pollsD+5.9
Gap+15.5synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Chris Pappas
55.2 synthetic46.8 polls
John E. Sununu
35.7 synthetic41.6 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 4.2 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 6.7 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / YouGov, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-34 | 44 | 49.2 / 62.6 | 40.4 / 34.3 | 7.7 |
| 35-49 | 24 | 64.5 / 60.0 | 27.2 / 34.0 | 3.5 |
| 50-64 | 31 | 53.9 / 47.0 | 37.2 / 49.0 | 5.9 |
| 65+ | 54 | 58.5 / 45.0 | 32.7 / 49.0 | 8.2 |
| Men | 101 | 54.8 / 47.5 | 36.5 / 47.5 | 6.0 |
| Women | 99 | 55.5 / 54.0 | 34.8 / 41.0 | 3.1 |
| Harris 2024 voters | 77 | 80.8 / 94.0 | 13.5 / 2.0 | 6.8 |
| Trump 2024 voters | 65 | 26.1 / 3.0 | 63.7 / 91.0 | 14.1 |
| White non-college | 96 | 49.8 / 45.0 | 39.9 / 49.0 | 4.6 |
| White college | 82 | 61.7 / 62.6 | 31.2 / 33.3 | 2.2 |
| Female | 99 | 55.5 / 61.0 | 34.8 / 33.0 | 3.7 |
| Male | 101 | 54.8 / 40.0 | 36.5 / 56.0 | 10.8 |
| 18-34 | 44 | 49.2 / 57.0 | 40.4 / 28.0 | 7.8 |
| 35-49 | 24 | 64.5 / 55.0 | 27.2 / 44.0 | 8.5 |
| 50-64 | 31 | 53.9 / 46.5 | 37.2 / 50.5 | 7.7 |
| 65+ | 54 | 58.5 / 51.0 | 32.7 / 46.0 | 6.7 |
| High school or less | 61 | 48.4 / 42.0 | 41.0 / 52.0 | 7.4 |
| Some college / associate | 49 | 51.9 / 46.0 | 37.5 / 50.0 | 6.8 |
| College graduate (bachelor's) | 90 | 61.2 / 56.0 | 31.3 / 40.0 | 4.9 |
| Republican (identification) | 68 | 22.0 / 7.0 | 66.8 / 92.0 | 12.6 |
| Democrat (identification) | 99 | 80.7 / 92.9 | 13.3 / 2.0 | 7.2 |
| Independent (identification) | 33 | 43.4 / 52.0 | 41.6 / 34.0 | 8.2 |
| Seacoast/Border | 66 | 56.8 / 46.5 | 33.7 / 48.5 | 8.4 |
| Merrimack Valley | 84 | 54.9 / 55.6 | 36.3 / 40.4 | 3.4 |
| Monadnock/Dartmouth | 16 | 42.0 / 50.0 | 49.9 / 43.0 | 5.1 |
| North Country/Lakes | 16 | 69.4 / 53.0 | 22.2 / 45.0 | 11.5 |
| 18-29 | 20 | 48.9 / 35.2 | 40.2 / 46.2 | 7.4 |
| 50-64 | 31 | 53.9 / 41.6 | 37.2 / 43.6 | 6.2 |
| 65+ | 54 | 58.5 / 51.1 | 32.7 / 40.5 | 4.0 |
| Female | 99 | 55.5 / 55.4 | 34.8 / 30.1 | 2.4 |
| Male | 101 | 54.8 / 38.9 | 36.5 / 51.7 | 8.0 |
| White | 178 | 55.3 / 48.2 | 35.8 / 39.8 | 3.6 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among New Hampshire voters
Approve · synthetic29.9%66.6% disapprove
Approve · polls39.7%59.0% disapprove
Net gap−17.4synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | OCT 05, 2026 | 1,520 (LV) | 51.0 | 43.0 |
| Saint Anselm College for AARP | SEP 29, 2026 | 1,042 (LV) | 51.0 | 44.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | SEP 27, 2026 | 1,082 (LV) | 47.0 | 41.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | SEP 22, 2026 | 613 (LV) | 50.0 | 45.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | SEP 21, 2026 | 1,418 (LV) | 50.0 | 42.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | SEP 17, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 48.0 | 40.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | SEP 11, 2026 | 958 (LV) | 46.0 | 46.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | SEP 10, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | 45.0 | 34.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.