United States · U.S. SenateElection day · NOV 03, 2026

Texas

U.S. Senate

14days to polls

The call

200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.

SyntheticD+17.7James Talarico

Poll average · 25 pollsD+2.9

Gap+14.8synthetic − polls, points

SyntheticPoll average

James Talarico

49.8 synthetic48.4 polls

Ken Paxton

34.8 synthetic45.6 polls

Against the polls

Share error

7.2 pts per option

Crosstab error

6.7 pts

Sample

200 synthetic voters

By group

Each cell is synthetic / Emerson College / Nexstar, shares within the group.

Group	n	D	R	Error
under 50	99	50.9 / 52.7	32.0 / 38.4	4.2
50 and over	64	44.9 / 42.0	38.1 / 53.1	7.5
men	116	46.4 / 44.1	35.9 / 50.1	7.1
women	84	52.3 / 47.3	31.8 / 45.6	7.0
White	84	42.2 / 35.9	39.0 / 59.2	10.2
Black	11	68.6 / 79.7	16.4 / 11.2	6.5
Hispanic	81	52.0 / 55.4	32.5 / 35.8	3.4
no four-year degree	137	47.5 / 44.3	35.6 / 48.1	6.3
college graduate	63	51.9 / 49.0	31.2 / 46.0	7.4
under 50	99	49.9 / 56.4	31.4 / 35.7	5.4
50 and over	64	44.1 / 40.4	37.4 / 54.6	8.6
men	116	45.5 / 44.6	35.2 / 47.1	5.9
women	84	51.4 / 49.5	31.3 / 46.4	7.6
White	84	41.3 / 37.4	38.2 / 57.3	9.5
Black	11	68.1 / 83.1	16.3 / 11.4	7.5
Hispanic	81	51.1 / 53.6	31.9 / 38.8	4.7
no four-year degree	137	46.6 / 45.2	34.9 / 48.2	6.6
college graduate	63	51.0 / 50.5	30.7 / 43.7	6.5
18 to 29	26	46.7 / 74.0	34.0 / 18.0	13.7
30 to 44	44	50.0 / 54.0	33.2 / 34.0	3.4
45 to 64	66	49.2 / 43.0	34.4 / 54.0	9.8
65 or older	35	42.7 / 39.0	39.8 / 59.0	9.6
under 45	99	50.9 / 62.0	32.0 / 28.0	5.6
45 or older	101	47.0 / 41.0	36.2 / 56.0	9.9
men	116	46.4 / 43.0	35.9 / 50.0	7.1
women	84	52.3 / 56.0	31.8 / 38.0	5.0
White	84	42.2 / 43.0	39.0 / 53.0	7.4
non-White	116	53.7 / 60.0	30.7 / 32.0	3.8
White, not college graduate	54	38.3 / 32.0	43.8 / 64.0	10.1
White, college graduate	30	49.2 / 54.0	30.7 / 41.0	7.7
not college graduate	137	47.5 / 44.0	35.6 / 48.0	6.2
college graduate	63	51.9 / 58.0	31.2 / 38.0	6.5
White	84	41.3 / 37.0	38.2 / 56.0	8.9
Latino	81	51.1 / 57.0	31.9 / 38.0	6.0
Black	11	68.1 / 87.0	16.3 / 10.0	9.5
women	84	51.4 / 53.0	31.3 / 42.0	6.2
men	116	45.5 / 42.0	35.2 / 51.0	7.9
18 to 34	55	50.5 / 76.0	30.5 / 18.0	12.7
35 to 54	81	49.4 / 51.0	32.6 / 42.0	5.5
55 or older	64	44.1 / 37.0	37.4 / 57.0	9.8
four-year degree	63	51.0 / 49.0	30.7 / 44.0	6.7
no four-year degree	137	46.6 / 46.0	34.9 / 49.0	7.0
18 to 29	26	46.7 / 70.4	34.0 / 27.6	11.9
30 to 44	44	50.0 / 62.0	33.2 / 34.0	6.4
45 to 64	66	49.2 / 46.5	34.4 / 48.5	7.2
65 or older	35	42.7 / 38.4	39.8 / 55.6	8.4
men	116	46.4 / 45.9	35.9 / 50.0	7.1
women	84	52.3 / 54.5	31.8 / 40.4	5.5
White	84	42.2 / 39.4	39.0 / 55.6	8.3
Black	11	68.6 / 83.0	16.4 / 13.0	7.2
Hispanic	81	52.0 / 61.0	32.5 / 34.0	5.3
White, no college	54	38.3 / 32.0	43.8 / 64.0	10.1
White, college	30	49.2 / 49.5	30.7 / 45.4	8.2
18 to 29	26	45.7 / 58.0	33.3 / 32.3	6.2
50 to 64	29	46.7 / 44.9	35.5 / 48.0	6.2
65 or older	35	41.9 / 43.1	39.0 / 49.6	5.9
women	84	51.4 / 50.1	31.3 / 41.2	5.0
men	116	45.5 / 42.3	35.2 / 49.7	7.2
White	84	41.3 / 37.8	38.2 / 52.0	6.9
Hispanic	81	51.1 / 58.4	31.9 / 36.1	5.7
Black	11	68.1 / 66.6	16.3 / 27.3	5.5
Asian	17	57.7 / 41.4	23.9 / 52.9	14.5
18 to 29	26	45.7 / 76.5	33.3 / 6.5	15.5
50 to 64	29	46.7 / 46.0	35.5 / 45.8	5.2
65 or older	35	41.9 / 29.8	39.0 / 60.8	10.9
women	84	51.4 / 48.7	31.3 / 41.9	5.3
men	116	45.5 / 45.4	35.2 / 45.5	5.1
White	84	41.3 / 43.1	38.2 / 48.0	5.8
Hispanic	81	51.1 / 48.3	31.9 / 46.0	7.0
Black	11	68.1 / 56.1	16.3 / 32.0	9.1
Asian	17	57.7 / 71.8	23.9 / 0.0	13.6
18 to 34	55	51.5 / 57.0	31.1 / 34.0	4.2
35 to 49	44	50.0 / 50.5	33.2 / 37.6	2.5
50 to 64	29	47.4 / 42.0	36.0 / 49.0	7.1
65 or older	35	42.7 / 40.6	39.8 / 54.5	7.3
men	116	46.4 / 47.5	35.9 / 47.5	6.3
women	84	52.3 / 48.0	31.8 / 40.0	4.2
less than college	137	47.5 / 45.5	35.6 / 44.6	4.5
college	63	51.9 / 52.0	31.2 / 41.0	5.0
White	84	42.2 / 39.0	39.0 / 53.0	7.0
non-White	116	53.7 / 61.0	30.7 / 29.0	3.7
union household	18	50.4 / 48.5	31.3 / 46.5	7.8
Latino (oversample)	81	52.0 / 56.0	32.5 / 37.0	4.3
Latino men	45	52.2 / 54.0	31.5 / 40.0	5.1
Latina women	36	51.8 / 57.0	33.6 / 35.0	3.3
Latino 18 to 34	26	50.5 / 61.0	32.3 / 34.0	6.1
Latino 65 or older	13	52.9 / 52.0	35.7 / 39.0	1.6
Latino less than college	62	51.4 / 53.0	32.2 / 40.0	4.7
Latino college	19	53.8 / 65.0	33.3 / 29.0	5.6
White	84	40.6 / 34.3	37.5 / 48.4	4.5
Hispanic	81	50.2 / 46.7	31.3 / 35.3	3.3
Black	11	66.7 / 69.2	15.9 / 11.9	2.4
men	116	44.7 / 37.8	34.5 / 47.2	5.3
women	84	50.5 / 45.8	30.7 / 32.7	2.8
18 to 29	26	44.8 / 48.7	32.6 / 29.1	3.6
30 to 44	44	48.2 / 39.1	31.9 / 38.6	3.6
45 to 64	66	47.6 / 40.2	33.3 / 40.2	3.3
65 or older	35	41.1 / 43.0	38.3 / 47.2	4.4
four-year degree or more	63	50.2 / 48.1	30.2 / 36.9	3.0
no four-year degree	137	45.7 / 38.2	34.2 / 41.1	3.6
voters 50 and older	64	54.1 / 43.0	45.9 / 57.0	11.1

The government

Donald Trump's job approval as President, Texas

Approve · synthetic36.1%60.2% disapprove

Approve · polls44.4%53.2% disapprove

Net gap−15.2synthetic − polls

Latest polls

Newest first.

Pollster	Fieldwork to	Sample	D	R
Trafalgar Group (R)	OCT 08, 2026	1,086 (LV)	47.0	44.0
YouGov	OCT 05, 2026	3,625 (LV)	50.0	44.0
New York Times/Siena University	SEP 30, 2026	615 (LV)	51.0	45.0
Rasmussen Reports	SEP 29, 2026	1,128 (LV)	46.0	45.0
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)	SEP 28, 2026	881 (LV)	51.0	49.0
Guidant Polling & Strategy	SEP 28, 2026	800 (LV)	47.0	44.0
UMass Lowell/YouGov	SEP 28, 2026	850 (LV)	45.0	45.0
Pulse Decision Science (R)	SEP 27, 2026	800 (LV)	45.0	48.0

← United States midterm elections, 2026

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.