Ohio
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+2.5Jon Husted
Poll average · 17 pollsD+4.2
Gap−6.7synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Sherrod Brown
44.6 synthetic47.6 polls
Jon Husted
46.9 synthetic43.8 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 2.8 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 5.2 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / YouGov, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-29 | 22 | 51.4 / 66.7 | 40.0 / 24.2 | 8.0 |
| 30-44 | 27 | 44.7 / 57.6 | 46.1 / 33.3 | 7.9 |
| 45-64 | 77 | 47.2 / 44.4 | 44.1 / 50.5 | 3.2 |
| 65+ | 49 | 37.9 / 43.0 | 54.5 / 52.0 | 2.5 |
| Men | 88 | 43.0 / 45.9 | 49.1 / 48.0 | 1.9 |
| Women | 112 | 45.8 / 52.0 | 45.2 / 42.9 | 3.1 |
| White | 165 | 41.3 / 44.4 | 50.4 / 49.5 | 2.0 |
| Black | 19 | 68.3 / 83.0 | 21.2 / 11.0 | 7.7 |
| Harris 2024 voters | 54 | 76.2 / 98.0 | 17.0 / 0.0 | 10.9 |
| Trump 2024 voters | 71 | 21.2 / 7.1 | 71.9 / 84.8 | 7.1 |
| White non-college | 112 | 37.7 / 37.4 | 53.4 / 56.6 | 1.6 |
| White college | 53 | 48.8 / 58.0 | 44.4 / 37.0 | 5.1 |
| Democrat | 69 | 77.4 / 97.0 | 14.9 / 2.0 | 9.8 |
| Republican | 93 | 20.7 / 7.1 | 71.7 / 87.9 | 8.1 |
| Independent | 38 | 42.9 / 58.0 | 44.3 / 33.0 | 8.4 |
| Cleveland Area | 35 | 52.5 / 61.6 | 38.9 / 32.3 | 5.6 |
| Columbus Area | 37 | 40.9 / 57.6 | 49.1 / 36.4 | 8.3 |
| Cincinnati/Dayton | 44 | 43.6 / 54.5 | 48.2 / 39.4 | 6.0 |
| Household income under $100k | 98 | 40.0 / 49.0 | 51.2 / 44.0 | 4.5 |
| Household income $100k+ | 99 | 48.6 / 55.0 | 43.1 / 41.0 | 3.7 |
| Not college graduate | 138 | 41.5 / 45.5 | 49.4 / 47.5 | 2.4 |
| College graduate | 62 | 51.1 / 60.6 | 41.4 / 36.4 | 4.8 |
| White | 165 | 41.3 / 48.0 | 50.4 / 46.9 | 3.3 |
| Non-white | 35 | 59.9 / 64.6 | 29.9 / 30.3 | 2.6 |
| White - not college graduate | 112 | 37.7 / 41.0 | 53.4 / 51.0 | 2.0 |
| White - college graduate | 53 | 48.8 / 58.0 | 44.4 / 39.0 | 4.6 |
| Men - white - not college graduate | 53 | 36.0 / 36.7 | 55.5 / 55.1 | 1.3 |
| Men - white - college graduate | 26 | 51.5 / 53.5 | 42.5 / 43.4 | 1.5 |
| Women - white - not college graduate | 59 | 39.3 / 45.0 | 51.5 / 48.0 | 2.9 |
| Women - white - college graduate | 27 | 46.2 / 62.0 | 46.2 / 35.0 | 7.9 |
| Under 45 | 74 | 46.3 / 55.6 | 44.7 / 38.4 | 5.1 |
| 45 or older | 126 | 43.5 / 48.5 | 48.1 / 46.5 | 2.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 27 | 44.7 / 54.5 | 46.1 / 37.4 | 5.8 |
| 45 to 64 | 77 | 47.2 / 50.0 | 44.1 / 43.9 | 1.9 |
| 65 or older | 49 | 37.9 / 47.5 | 54.5 / 49.5 | 4.8 |
| Men | 88 | 43.0 / 46.0 | 49.1 / 48.0 | 1.9 |
| Women | 112 | 45.8 / 56.1 | 45.2 / 38.8 | 5.2 |
| 18-29 | 22 | 51.4 / 57.9 | 40.0 / 27.5 | 7.6 |
| 50-64 | 28 | 43.5 / 46.5 | 46.9 / 40.9 | 3.5 |
| 65+ | 49 | 37.9 / 41.5 | 54.5 / 45.7 | 4.4 |
| Female | 112 | 45.8 / 47.2 | 45.2 / 39.4 | 3.5 |
| Male | 88 | 43.0 / 43.4 | 49.1 / 43.7 | 2.7 |
| White | 165 | 41.3 / 44.1 | 50.4 / 43.4 | 3.7 |
| Black | 19 | 68.3 / 57.5 | 21.2 / 26.5 | 5.4 |
| Hispanic | 7 | 45.4 / 48.0 | 45.1 / 34.3 | 5.4 |
| Asian | 5 | 59.0 / 49.0 | 29.2 / 27.9 | 8.3 |
| Other | 4 | 46.4 / 47.8 | 45.8 / 36.9 | 4.5 |
| Male | 88 | 41.5 / 44.0 | 47.4 / 50.0 | 2.0 |
| Female | 112 | 44.9 / 53.0 | 44.3 / 40.0 | 3.6 |
| 18-29 | 22 | 48.4 / 51.0 | 37.6 / 43.0 | 3.2 |
| 30-44 | 27 | 44.1 / 56.6 | 45.4 / 38.4 | 5.0 |
| 45-64 | 77 | 46.0 / 41.0 | 43.0 / 51.0 | 3.9 |
| 65+ | 49 | 36.9 / 51.0 | 53.0 / 45.0 | 5.6 |
| White | 165 | 40.2 / 43.0 | 49.1 / 51.0 | 1.9 |
| Black | 19 | 67.5 / 85.0 | 20.9 / 11.0 | 7.3 |
| Hispanic | 7 | 44.0 / 46.5 | 43.7 / 39.4 | 4.3 |
| Other race | 9 | 51.6 / 65.0 | 35.7 / 25.0 | 6.2 |
| No 4-year degree | 138 | 40.4 / 42.0 | 48.0 / 51.0 | 2.2 |
| 4-year degree+ | 62 | 50.0 / 58.6 | 40.5 / 36.4 | 3.4 |
| Democrat | 69 | 75.9 / 96.0 | 14.6 / 1.0 | 8.1 |
| Republican | 93 | 20.1 / 7.0 | 69.6 / 86.0 | 6.8 |
| Independent | 38 | 41.6 / 43.0 | 43.0 / 37.0 | 3.6 |
| Harris 2024 | 54 | 75.3 / 96.0 | 16.8 / 1.0 | 8.3 |
| Trump 2024 | 71 | 20.7 / 7.1 | 70.2 / 84.8 | 6.2 |
| Other / did not vote 2024 | 75 | 41.8 / 49.0 | 43.0 / 34.0 | 5.6 |
| 18-29 | 22 | 56.2 / 67.3 | 43.8 / 32.7 | 11.1 |
| 30-44 | 27 | 49.3 / 54.4 | 50.7 / 45.6 | 5.2 |
| 45-64 | 77 | 51.7 / 45.7 | 48.3 / 54.3 | 5.9 |
| 65+ | 49 | 41.0 / 50.0 | 59.0 / 50.0 | 9.0 |
| Under 30 | 22 | 56.2 / 59.0 | 43.8 / 41.0 | 2.8 |
| Under 30 | 22 | 56.2 / 62.2 | 43.8 / 37.8 | 6.0 |
| 30-44 | 27 | 49.3 / 56.2 | 50.7 / 43.8 | 6.9 |
| Democrats | 69 | 83.9 / 98.0 | 16.1 / 2.0 | 14.1 |
| Republicans | 93 | 22.4 / 13.1 | 77.6 / 86.9 | 9.3 |
| White | 165 | 45.1 / 50.0 | 54.9 / 50.0 | 5.0 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Ohio voters
Approve · synthetic39.9%55.1% disapprove
Approve · polls42.0%56.3% disapprove
Net gap−0.9synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | OCT 06, 2026 | 925 (LV) | 44.0 | 43.0 |
| SSRS for CNN | OCT 05, 2026 | 760 (LV) | 43.0 | 49.0 |
| New York Times / Siena | OCT 01, 2026 | 616 (LV) | 46.0 | 49.0 |
| YouGov | SEP 30, 2026 | 3,780 (LV) | 45.0 | 49.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | SEP 29, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 43.0 | 44.0 |
| Big Data Poll (R) for Public Polling Project | SEP 27, 2026 | 680 (LV) | 41.0 | 46.0 |
| Marist University | SEP 27, 2026 | 1,298 (RV) | 43.0 | 51.0 |
| Suffolk University for USA Today | SEP 27, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 44.0 | 47.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.