Alaska at-large congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
SyntheticI+2.8Bill Hill
Poll average · 6 pollsR+9.5
Gap−12.3synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Nick Begich III
40.5 synthetic46.5 polls
Bill Hill
43.3 synthetic37.0 polls
Eric Hafner
1.0 synthetic5.2 polls
James C. "Jim" McDermott
6.8 synthetic2.2 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 3.6 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 8.3 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Data for Progress (D), shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | I | D | L | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 67 | 18.1 / 6.0 | 69.9 / 68.0 | — | — | 10.4 |
| Independent / third party | 48 | 40.0 / 30.0 | 50.0 / 50.0 | — | — | 5.5 |
| Republican | 85 | 65.8 / 90.0 | 27.9 / 5.0 | — | — | 13.4 |
| Female | 77 | 39.2 / 41.0 | 50.9 / 42.0 | — | — | 6.9 |
| Male | 123 | 46.9 / 52.0 | 44.5 / 33.0 | — | — | 6.7 |
| Under 45 | 101 | 45.1 / 32.0 | 45.6 / 46.0 | — | — | 6.6 |
| 45+ | 99 | 42.8 / 54.5 | 48.4 / 33.3 | — | — | 10.0 |
| No college | 144 | 46.5 / 49.5 | 44.0 / 32.3 | — | — | 7.2 |
| College | 56 | 37.3 / 42.0 | 54.7 / 46.0 | — | — | 6.0 |
| American Indian or Alaska Native | 43 | 46.1 / 37.6 | 44.2 / 38.6 | — | — | 10.4 |
| White | 117 | 44.1 / 47.0 | 47.0 / 40.0 | — | — | 5.5 |
| Anchorage | 78 | 44.3 / 41.4 | 46.2 / 43.4 | — | — | 5.2 |
| Kenai Peninsula | 15 | 46.0 / 55.0 | 46.3 / 41.0 | — | — | 4.5 |
| Mat-Su | 31 | 40.4 / 62.0 | 50.2 / 19.0 | — | — | 16.9 |
| Fairbanks North Star | 28 | 54.1 / 48.5 | 38.0 / 30.3 | — | — | 7.8 |
| Southeast | 22 | 32.6 / 37.0 | 57.1 / 47.0 | — | — | 5.1 |
| Rest of state | 26 | 44.5 / 41.0 | 47.1 / 41.0 | — | — | 7.1 |
| 50+ (initial ballot) | 67 | 40.3 / 52.0 | 45.3 / 30.0 | 1.1 / 8.0 | 6.7 / 3.0 | 7.6 |
| 50+ (ranked-choice final round) | 67 | 47.0 / 61.0 | 53.0 / 39.0 | — | — | 14.0 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Alaska voters
Approve · synthetic37.0%57.8% disapprove
Approve · polls47.0%51.3% disapprove
Net gap−16.5synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | I | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | OCT 03, 2026 | 1,512 (LV) | 50.0 | 40.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | OCT 01, 2026 | 504 (LV) | 47.0 | 35.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | SEP 11, 2026 | 800 (LV) | 45.0 | 31.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 |
| Bullfinch Group for the Independent Leadership Council | SEP 06, 2026 | 820 (LV) | 44.0 | 37.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 |
| GBAO (D) | AUG 05, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 46.0 | 42.0 | — | — |
| Data for Progress (D) | AUG 04, 2026 | 605 (LV) | 47.0 | 37.0 | — | — |
| The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | JUL 16, 2026 | 705 (LV) | 46.0 | 20.0 | 32.0 | — |
| Tavern Research (D) | MAY 27, 2026 | 452 (LV) | 52.0 | 48.0 | — | — |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.