Montana
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
SyntheticR+22.1Kurt Alme
Poll average · 5 pollsR+15.4
Gap+6.7synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Kurt Alme
42.5 synthetic43.0 polls
Seth Bodnar
20.3 synthetic27.6 polls
Alani Bankhead
28.5 synthetic17.4 polls
Kyle Austin
3.1 synthetic3.2 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 4.4 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 6.8 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Rutgers-Eagleton for Montana Free Press, shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | I | D | L | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 72 | 12.3 / 0.4 | 23.6 / 52.8 | 58.8 / 41.0 | 2.9 / 0.8 | 10.6 |
| Independent | 33 | 36.3 / 24.0 | 32.0 / 37.9 | 23.9 / 17.8 | 4.1 / 5.2 | 6.2 |
| Republican | 95 | 69.9 / 77.6 | 15.5 / 7.3 | 9.7 / 0.4 | 3.0 / 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Men | 103 | 45.4 / 42.5 | 21.6 / 29.0 | 27.1 / 9.7 | 3.3 / 6.4 | 6.8 |
| Women | 97 | 42.5 / 34.2 | 20.5 / 31.3 | 32.1 / 23.2 | 3.0 / 2.5 | 5.9 |
| 18-34 | 47 | 42.7 / 17.8 | 24.7 / 26.6 | 25.9 / 25.0 | 3.6 / 5.9 | 8.6 |
| 35-49 | 27 | 40.9 / 36.0 | 21.3 / 26.3 | 31.9 / 19.4 | 3.2 / 6.9 | 5.8 |
| 50-64 | 26 | 49.8 / 41.4 | 18.4 / 31.6 | 27.2 / 13.3 | 2.8 / 6.6 | 7.4 |
| 65+ | 54 | 44.6 / 50.7 | 19.7 / 35.1 | 30.6 / 10.4 | 2.9 / 0.6 | 7.7 |
| Income under $50K | 43 | 43.4 / 27.6 | 19.0 / 28.8 | 31.7 / 23.6 | 3.0 / 2.9 | 8.0 |
| Income $50K-$100K | 65 | 43.1 / 45.3 | 20.3 / 29.9 | 31.1 / 13.7 | 3.3 / 5.1 | 5.8 |
| Income $100K-$150K | 53 | 44.9 / 46.1 | 23.6 / 31.1 | 26.2 / 12.4 | 3.2 / 2.7 | 4.8 |
| Income $150K+ | 35 | 44.6 / 37.0 | 19.8 / 34.3 | 30.7 / 14.7 | 3.0 / 6.9 | 7.9 |
| HS or less | 63 | 51.3 / 42.6 | 19.6 / 20.5 | 23.2 / 10.6 | 3.3 / 6.8 | 7.1 |
| Some college | 58 | 42.4 / 44.9 | 23.1 / 23.0 | 28.4 / 18.2 | 3.4 / 4.7 | 3.5 |
| Bachelor's degree+ | 79 | 39.3 / 30.4 | 20.7 / 41.8 | 35.3 / 18.7 | 2.9 / 3.2 | 8.5 |
| Some college or less | 121 | 47.0 / 43.8 | 21.3 / 21.8 | 25.7 / 14.6 | 3.3 / 5.7 | 4.8 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Montana voters
Approve · synthetic37.3%57.7% disapprove
Approve · polls42.5%53.3% disapprove
Net gap−9.6synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | I | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R) | SEP 15, 2026 | 625 (LV) | 44.0 | 24.0 | 23.0 | — |
| Aspect Strategic | SEP 15, 2026 | 715 (LV) | 44.0 | 32.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics | SEP 07, 2026 | 845 (RV) | 38.0 | 30.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 |
| Peak Insights | AUG 25, 2026 | 600 (LV) | 44.0 | 22.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 |
| Hart Research (D) | AUG 04, 2026 | 800 (LV) | 45.0 | 30.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | JUL 27, 2026 | 517 (LV) | 49.0 | 25.0 | 24.0 | 2.0 |
| GQR (D) | JUL 26, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 41.0 | 27.0 | 22.0 | 6.0 |
| Bullfinch Group (R) | JUL 16, 2026 | 793 (LV) | 36.0 | 24.0 | 22.0 | — |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.