Kansas
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+9.6Roger Marshall
Poll average · 11 pollsD+1.2
Gap−10.8synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Adam Hamilton
36.9 synthetic45.5 polls
Roger Marshall
44.8 synthetic44.4 polls
David Graham
5.8 synthetic3.9 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 4.3 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 6.8 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Emerson College / Nexstar, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | L | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| party: democrat | 74 | 69.5 / 92.6 | 12.2 / 1.8 | 4.8 / 1.3 | 11.5 |
| party: republican | 90 | 12.7 / 14.7 | 71.6 / 76.9 | 5.6 / 2.3 | 3.6 |
| party: independent other | 36 | 30.9 / 41.8 | 44.2 / 27.2 | 8.5 / 11.1 | 8.5 |
| 2024 vote: kamala harris | 51 | 67.7 / 94.4 | 14.6 / 1.1 | 5.2 / 1.6 | 13.3 |
| 2024 vote: donald trump | 67 | 13.3 / 6.2 | 71.6 / 78.5 | 5.4 / 3.8 | 4.3 |
| hispanic or latino of any race | 23 | 42.2 / 50.1 | 38.2 / 37.7 | 6.6 / 0.0 | 3.9 |
| white or caucasian | 148 | 35.0 / 42.6 | 47.3 / 45.7 | 5.6 / 4.2 | 3.8 |
| black or african american | 12 | 47.1 / 73.3 | 33.1 / 7.0 | 5.4 / 2.2 | 14.7 |
| other or multiple races | 11 | 33.3 / 25.5 | 46.0 / 69.8 | 7.4 / 1.9 | 11.9 |
| under 50 | 83 | 37.5 / 45.5 | 41.8 / 39.4 | 6.2 / 5.2 | 4.0 |
| 50 and over | 72 | 33.1 / 44.2 | 50.4 / 45.9 | 5.3 / 2.7 | 5.5 |
| high school or less | 72 | 37.0 / 40.1 | 44.0 / 45.2 | 5.9 / 3.2 | 2.2 |
| some college / associate / vocational | 48 | 32.7 / 44.0 | 49.5 / 42.7 | 5.6 / 4.3 | 5.7 |
| college graduate | 80 | 39.5 / 47.2 | 42.7 / 43.1 | 5.8 / 3.4 | 4.1 |
| male | 102 | 35.3 / 39.5 | 45.7 / 45.5 | 6.1 / 4.5 | 2.1 |
| female | 98 | 38.7 / 49.7 | 43.8 / 41.2 | 5.5 / 2.9 | 5.5 |
| 18-29 | 27 | 35.7 / 64.3 | 44.7 / 29.6 | — | 14.3 |
| 30-44 | 34 | 41.7 / 59.6 | 43.7 / 34.3 | — | 9.0 |
| 45-64 | 68 | 39.6 / 45.0 | 46.8 / 49.0 | — | 3.8 |
| 65+ | 49 | 36.1 / 38.6 | 51.7 / 54.5 | — | 2.6 |
| Men | 102 | 37.0 / 44.9 | 47.9 / 48.0 | — | 4.0 |
| Women | 98 | 40.3 / 51.0 | 45.7 / 44.0 | — | 5.3 |
| White | 148 | 36.6 / 45.0 | 49.4 / 48.0 | — | 4.2 |
| Hispanic | 23 | 44.4 / 66.3 | 40.1 / 31.6 | — | 11.0 |
| Harris 2024 | 51 | 70.4 / 98.0 | 15.2 / 0.0 | — | 13.8 |
| Trump 2024 | 67 | 13.9 / 11.1 | 74.7 / 81.8 | — | 3.6 |
| White non-college | 83 | 34.8 / 36.4 | 50.4 / 55.6 | — | 3.3 |
| White college | 65 | 38.8 / 58.0 | 48.1 / 38.0 | — | 9.6 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, Kansas
Approve · synthetic36.0%60.0% disapprove
Approve · polls44.0%50.3% disapprove
Net gap−17.8synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | OCT 10, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 48.0 | 47.0 | 3.0 |
| GBAO (D) | OCT 04, 2026 | 600 (LV) | 46.0 | 41.0 | 7.0 |
| GBAO (D) | OCT 04, 2026 | 600 (LV) | 49.0 | 44.0 | — |
| YouGov | OCT 04, 2026 | 2,255 (LV) | 48.0 | 45.0 | — |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | OCT 01, 2026 | 1,095 (LV) | 44.0 | 44.0 | 2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | SEP 30, 2026 | 605 (LV) | 45.0 | 45.0 | 5.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | SEP 30, 2026 | 605 (LV) | 46.0 | 47.0 | — |
| Wedgewood Polls | SEP 24, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 50.0 | 48.0 | 2.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.