Nebraska
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticI+26.2Dan Osborn
Poll average · 6 pollsR+0.5
Gap−26.7synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Pete Ricketts
34.1 synthetic45.1 polls
Dan Osborn
58.2 synthetic44.6 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 7.1 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 8.1 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / YouGov, shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | I | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-29 | 27 | 26.8 / 34.7 | 65.1 / 64.3 | 5.3 |
| 30-44 | 34 | 27.9 / 31.0 | 64.9 / 63.0 | 2.0 |
| 45-64 | 71 | 37.6 / 52.6 | 56.1 / 44.3 | 10.0 |
| 65+ | 46 | 40.2 / 58.2 | 54.2 / 38.8 | 12.0 |
| Men | 103 | 35.6 / 50.5 | 57.4 / 46.4 | 9.9 |
| Women | 97 | 32.9 / 45.5 | 60.1 / 50.5 | 8.3 |
| Harris 2024 | 48 | 14.4 / 1.0 | 79.6 / 98.0 | 12.2 |
| Trump 2024 | 75 | 52.9 / 85.7 | 41.7 / 9.2 | 21.9 |
| White non-college | 87 | 41.6 / 53.5 | 51.3 / 42.4 | 7.9 |
| White college | 73 | 32.4 / 37.8 | 61.2 / 59.2 | 3.6 |
| Male | 103 | 35.3 / 51.0 | 56.9 / 40.0 | 10.4 |
| Female | 97 | 32.7 / 33.0 | 59.6 / 53.0 | 3.3 |
| 18-34 | 49 | 28.0 / 26.0 | 61.7 / 67.0 | 3.6 |
| 35-49 | 34 | 27.7 / 32.0 | 64.4 / 47.0 | 8.7 |
| 50-64 | 25 | 41.4 / 48.5 | 51.1 / 41.4 | 4.9 |
| 65+ | 46 | 40.0 / 59.0 | 54.0 / 31.0 | 12.3 |
| 18-49 | 83 | 27.9 / 29.0 | 62.8 / 57.0 | 2.9 |
| 50+ | 71 | 40.5 / 54.0 | 53.0 / 36.0 | 8.5 |
| White | 160 | 37.1 / 46.0 | 55.4 / 44.0 | 5.7 |
| Black | 10 | 16.2 / 21.0 | 74.6 / 48.0 | 13.3 |
| Hispanic | 19 | 27.7 / 22.2 | 62.9 / 51.5 | 8.4 |
| Asian / Other | 11 | 16.3 / 20.0 | 76.6 / 64.0 | 6.3 |
| Republican | 102 | 50.2 / 78.0 | 43.0 / 14.0 | 15.1 |
| Democrat | 69 | 13.3 / 2.0 | 79.2 / 87.0 | 6.0 |
| Independent | 29 | 26.7 / 16.8 | 62.1 / 67.3 | 5.6 |
| Trump 2024 | 75 | 52.6 / 82.0 | 41.4 / 12.0 | 15.4 |
| Harris 2024 | 48 | 14.3 / 4.0 | 79.2 / 84.0 | 5.1 |
| High School | 56 | 37.5 / 51.5 | 54.9 / 36.4 | 9.3 |
| Some College | 58 | 36.8 / 41.0 | 54.6 / 45.0 | 5.2 |
| 4-Year College | 86 | 30.0 / 38.4 | 62.8 / 53.5 | 4.6 |
| < $40K | 20 | 33.1 / 33.0 | 58.3 / 49.0 | 4.7 |
| $40K - $80K | 32 | 33.3 / 48.0 | 59.3 / 45.0 | 8.5 |
| > $80K | 81 | 32.5 / 44.0 | 60.0 / 45.0 | 7.5 |
| Own | 138 | 35.3 / 52.0 | 57.5 / 37.0 | 10.5 |
| Rent | 55 | 30.6 / 19.0 | 60.6 / 69.0 | 5.8 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, Nebraska
Approve · synthetic37.7%58.2% disapprove
Approve · polls44.5%51.0% disapprove
Net gap−14.0synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | I | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | OCT 03, 2026 | 1,809 (LV) | 48.0 | 47.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | SEP 30, 2026 | 1,113 (LV) | 43.0 | 48.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | SEP 30, 2026 | 1,113 (LV) | 40.0 | 45.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls | SEP 16, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 48.0 | 52.0 |
| SurveyUSA | SEP 13, 2026 | 503 (LV) | 46.0 | 42.0 |
| GBAO (D) for Working Class Majority PAC | SEP 08, 2026 | 800 (LV) | 47.0 | 46.0 |
| Impact Research (D) for the Osborn campaign | AUG 13, 2026 | 600 (LV) | 47.0 | 47.0 |
| Tavern Research (D) | MAY 11, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | 47.0 | 42.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.