Minnesota

U.S. Senate

14days to polls

The call

200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.

SyntheticD+15.8Peggy Flanagan

Poll average · 11 pollsD+3.7

Gap+12.1synthetic − polls, points

SyntheticPoll average

Peggy Flanagan

50.9 synthetic45.3 polls

Michele Tafoya

37.0 synthetic42.1 polls

Against the polls

Share error: 3.4 pts per option
Crosstab error: 5.0 pts
Sample: 200 synthetic voters

By group

Each cell is synthetic / SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV, KAAL-TV, WDIO-TV, shares within the group.

Group	n	D	R	Error
men	95	48.7 / 39.4	33.9 / 47.5	5.4
women	105	48.0 / 44.6	36.3 / 36.6	2.6
18-34	47	50.5 / 47.0	33.3 / 28.0	3.9
35-49	34	51.2 / 40.0	30.5 / 39.0	6.4
50-64	24	43.0 / 36.4	39.4 / 51.5	4.9
65+	49	51.1 / 44.6	35.0 / 46.5	4.8
under 50	81	50.8 / 43.4	32.2 / 34.3	3.6
50 and over	73	48.5 / 40.6	36.4 / 48.5	4.8
Republicans	80	18.0 / 5.0	62.7 / 88.0	10.1
Democrats	93	75.4 / 87.9	12.6 / 4.0	5.0
independents	27	42.5 / 29.0	33.7 / 43.0	6.2
2024 Trump voters	68	19.6 / 5.0	62.1 / 85.0	9.2
2024 Harris voters	75	73.7 / 77.8	14.6 / 7.1	3.8
high school or less	56	50.5 / 32.7	34.1 / 53.5	8.2
some college	66	40.6 / 43.4	40.1 / 39.4	2.3
4-year college graduates	78	53.3 / 45.5	31.9 / 37.6	3.6
income under $40K	14	44.7 / 40.0	38.3 / 38.0	2.4
income $40K-$80K	33	57.9 / 38.0	27.7 / 43.0	8.4
income over $80K	95	47.3 / 46.0	36.8 / 43.0	2.6
homeowners	144	48.5 / 41.0	35.6 / 46.0	4.7
renters	48	49.5 / 45.5	33.3 / 28.3	3.6
Twin Cities region	120	46.5 / 46.0	36.7 / 42.0	2.1
southern Minnesota	36	50.2 / 33.7	33.5 / 42.6	6.9
western Minnesota	30	51.7 / 33.0	32.3 / 49.0	8.7
northeastern Minnesota	14	52.2 / 40.6	32.5 / 37.6	5.4
men	95	48.7 / 41.0	33.9 / 47.0	5.3
women	105	48.0 / 50.5	36.3 / 34.7	2.3
18-34	47	50.5 / 60.6	33.3 / 24.2	4.4
35-49	34	51.2 / 44.6	30.5 / 41.6	4.5
50-64	24	43.0 / 39.0	39.4 / 44.0	3.4
65+	49	51.1 / 42.4	35.0 / 50.5	6.2
under 50	81	50.8 / 52.0	32.2 / 34.0	1.2
50 and over	73	48.5 / 40.6	36.4 / 46.5	4.8
Republicans	80	18.0 / 5.1	62.7 / 87.9	10.1
Democrats	93	75.4 / 87.0	12.6 / 4.0	4.7
independents	27	42.5 / 37.6	33.7 / 38.6	3.1
2024 Trump voters	68	19.6 / 6.1	62.1 / 85.9	9.5
2024 Harris voters	75	73.7 / 83.0	14.6 / 7.0	4.3
high school or less	56	50.5 / 31.0	34.1 / 53.0	9.6
some college	66	40.6 / 37.6	40.1 / 42.6	1.7
4-year college graduates	78	53.3 / 59.6	31.9 / 33.3	3.1
income under $40K	14	44.7 / 41.0	38.3 / 38.0	3.6
income $40K-$80K	33	57.9 / 47.0	27.7 / 38.0	5.1
income over $80K	95	47.3 / 46.5	36.8 / 44.6	3.1
homeowners	144	48.5 / 43.6	35.6 / 44.6	3.6
renters	48	49.5 / 51.5	33.3 / 28.7	3.0
Twin Cities region	120	46.5 / 51.5	36.7 / 36.4	2.0
southern Minnesota	36	50.2 / 38.0	33.5 / 45.0	5.2
western Minnesota	30	51.7 / 34.0	32.3 / 56.0	9.5
northeastern Minnesota	14	52.2 / 37.0	32.5 / 45.0	7.3

The government

Donald Trump's job approval as President, Minnesota

Approve · synthetic30.3%66.1% disapprove

Approve · polls37.2%59.0% disapprove

Net gap−14.0synthetic − polls

Latest polls

Newest first.

Pollster	Fieldwork to	Sample	D	R
Rasmussen Reports (R)	OCT 07, 2026	856 (LV)	48.0	45.0
Morning Consult	OCT 07, 2026	1,000 (RV)	45.0	41.0
GQR (D)	OCT 04, 2026	800 (LV)	50.0	42.0
Big Data Poll (R)	SEP 30, 2026	622 (LV)	40.0	38.0
InsiderAdvantage (R)	SEP 29, 2026	1,200 (LV)	46.0	45.0
co/efficient (R)	SEP 15, 2026	833 (LV)	43.0	42.0
KSTP/SurveyUSA	SEP 14, 2026	654 (LV)	42.0	42.0
Quantus Insights (R)	SEP 10, 2026	720 (LV)	48.0	44.0

← United States midterm elections, 2026

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.