Iowa
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+18.0Ashley Hinson
Poll average · 20 pollsD+0.9
Gap−18.9synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Josh Turek
35.5 synthetic45.5 polls
Ashley Hinson
51.1 synthetic44.7 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 6.0 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 8.0 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Emerson College / Nexstar, shares within the group.
| Group | n | D | R | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| party: democrat | 73 | 66.3 / 85.6 | 16.0 / 7.5 | 9.6 |
| party: republican | 98 | 11.4 / 9.2 | 74.8 / 83.8 | 4.5 |
| party: independent other | 29 | 32.6 / 50.4 | 43.9 / 37.5 | 8.9 |
| 2024 vote: kamala harris | 55 | 64.3 / 88.6 | 20.0 / 3.6 | 12.2 |
| 2024 vote: donald trump | 78 | 11.5 / 9.6 | 75.1 / 83.3 | 4.1 |
| 2024 vote: someone else | 1 | 47.2 / 34.1 | 11.1 / 31.1 | 11.1 |
| white or caucasian | 173 | 32.1 / 44.2 | 51.6 / 47.9 | 6.0 |
| black or african american | 5 | 59.5 / 72.6 | 19.6 / 16.7 | 6.6 |
| other or multiple races | 10 | 56.9 / 39.0 | 27.4 / 38.8 | 11.3 |
| age 18-29 | 25 | 43.8 / 49.2 | 35.8 / 34.0 | 2.7 |
| under 50 | 79 | 38.7 / 51.4 | 43.1 / 37.2 | 6.4 |
| 50 and over | 73 | 29.0 / 40.3 | 54.3 / 53.3 | 5.6 |
| high school or less | 71 | 30.8 / 34.7 | 51.0 / 47.2 | 2.3 |
| some college / associate / vocational | 66 | 34.2 / 44.3 | 50.3 / 46.4 | 5.0 |
| college graduate | 63 | 38.0 / 49.5 | 46.1 / 46.4 | 6.0 |
| male | 97 | 33.0 / 40.9 | 49.0 / 53.9 | 6.4 |
| female | 103 | 35.3 / 49.0 | 49.4 / 39.4 | 6.9 |
| party: democrat | 73 | 66.3 / 91.9 | 16.0 / 5.6 | 12.8 |
| party: republican | 98 | 11.4 / 7.7 | 74.8 / 87.9 | 6.6 |
| party: independent other | 29 | 32.6 / 45.9 | 43.9 / 43.9 | 6.7 |
| 2024 vote: kamala harris | 55 | 64.3 / 91.7 | 20.0 / 3.9 | 13.7 |
| 2024 vote: donald trump | 78 | 11.5 / 6.7 | 75.1 / 88.7 | 6.8 |
| 2024 vote: someone else | 1 | 47.2 / 43.2 | 11.1 / 45.0 | 16.9 |
| 2024: did not vote | 66 | 36.2 / 58.5 | 42.7 / 19.7 | 14.3 |
| white or caucasian | 173 | 32.1 / 45.0 | 51.6 / 49.8 | 6.4 |
| black or african american | 5 | 59.5 / 65.5 | 19.6 / 34.5 | 10.5 |
| other or multiple races | 10 | 56.9 / 27.5 | 27.4 / 55.5 | 15.9 |
| under 50 | 79 | 38.7 / 51.7 | 43.1 / 43.7 | 6.8 |
| 50 and over | 73 | 29.0 / 40.2 | 54.3 / 53.7 | 5.6 |
| high school or less | 71 | 30.8 / 40.3 | 51.0 / 53.2 | 5.9 |
| some college / associate / vocational | 66 | 34.2 / 44.5 | 50.3 / 50.1 | 5.1 |
| college graduate | 63 | 38.0 / 47.2 | 46.1 / 47.6 | 5.3 |
| male | 97 | 33.0 / 34.2 | 49.0 / 61.1 | 6.6 |
| female | 103 | 35.3 / 55.2 | 49.4 / 38.7 | 9.9 |
| party: democrat | 73 | 68.6 / 91.1 | 16.5 / 5.0 | 11.2 |
| party: republican | 98 | 11.8 / 5.7 | 77.4 / 88.2 | 5.4 |
| party: independent other | 29 | 34.3 / 49.3 | 46.2 / 37.5 | 8.2 |
| 2024 vote: kamala harris | 55 | 66.4 / 93.7 | 20.7 / 3.2 | 13.6 |
| 2024 vote: donald trump | 78 | 11.9 / 6.5 | 77.7 / 85.7 | 4.0 |
| 2024 vote: someone else | 1 | 54.0 / 30.0 | 12.7 / 36.0 | 15.2 |
| 2024: did not vote | 66 | 37.8 / 50.6 | 44.5 / 25.4 | 10.2 |
| white or caucasian | 173 | 33.3 / 45.5 | 53.5 / 47.8 | 6.1 |
| age 18-29 | 25 | 45.9 / 52.8 | 37.5 / 27.0 | 6.3 |
| under 50 | 79 | 40.2 / 48.9 | 44.9 / 38.6 | 5.3 |
| 50 and over | 73 | 30.1 / 42.2 | 56.3 / 54.0 | 6.1 |
| high school or less | 71 | 32.0 / 38.3 | 53.1 / 35.9 | 8.6 |
| some college / associate / vocational | 66 | 35.3 / 42.4 | 52.0 / 51.9 | 3.5 |
| college graduate | 63 | 39.5 / 50.0 | 47.9 / 46.2 | 5.2 |
| male | 97 | 34.4 / 38.7 | 51.1 / 55.0 | 4.7 |
| female | 103 | 36.4 / 50.4 | 51.0 / 40.9 | 7.0 |
| Men | 97 | 33.6 / 44.0 | 50.0 / 51.0 | 4.8 |
| Women | 103 | 35.9 / 54.0 | 50.3 / 43.0 | 7.2 |
| White | 173 | 32.7 / 49.5 | 52.5 / 47.5 | 6.7 |
| Under Age 35 | 47 | 41.7 / 51.0 | 40.4 / 47.0 | 6.4 |
| Age 65+ | 49 | 30.3 / 50.0 | 54.3 / 45.0 | 7.9 |
| Under Age 45 | 79 | 39.3 / 50.5 | 43.9 / 48.5 | 6.3 |
| Age 45+ | 121 | 31.9 / 49.5 | 54.2 / 46.5 | 7.0 |
| Dem | 73 | 67.1 / 95.0 | 16.2 / 3.0 | 11.2 |
| GOP | 98 | 11.6 / 10.0 | 76.3 / 87.0 | 4.3 |
| Ind | 29 | 33.6 / 58.0 | 45.3 / 26.0 | 11.2 |
| Trump 2024 Voters | 78 | 11.8 / 12.0 | 77.0 / 85.0 | 3.3 |
| Harris 2024 Voters | 55 | 65.7 / 94.1 | 20.5 / 4.0 | 11.3 |
| Under Income $50k | 50 | 35.6 / 54.0 | 49.7 / 41.0 | 7.7 |
| $50k-$99k | 70 | 31.7 / 50.0 | 53.1 / 46.0 | 7.3 |
| $100k+ | 72 | 36.8 / 47.5 | 48.8 / 52.5 | 5.8 |
| College Degree | 63 | 38.9 / 57.0 | 47.2 / 40.0 | 7.2 |
| No Degree | 137 | 33.0 / 45.0 | 51.5 / 51.0 | 4.8 |
| male | 97 | 33.0 / 43.0 | 49.0 / 49.0 | 5.0 |
| female | 103 | 35.3 / 53.5 | 49.4 / 38.4 | 9.1 |
| age 18-34 | 47 | 41.0 / 59.0 | 39.8 / 31.0 | 9.8 |
| age 65+ | 49 | 29.9 / 44.9 | 53.5 / 45.9 | 7.5 |
| white | 173 | 32.1 / 49.5 | 51.6 / 45.5 | 8.7 |
| Democrat | 73 | 66.3 / 95.0 | 16.0 / 1.0 | 14.3 |
| Republican | 98 | 11.4 / 6.0 | 74.8 / 87.0 | 6.1 |
| No party / independent | 29 | 32.6 / 58.6 | 43.9 / 30.3 | 13.0 |
| HS or less | 71 | 30.8 / 36.7 | 51.0 / 53.1 | 4.0 |
| some college | 66 | 34.2 / 49.5 | 50.3 / 43.4 | 7.6 |
| college graduate+ | 63 | 38.0 / 55.6 | 46.1 / 38.4 | 8.8 |
| Trump 2024 | 78 | 12.6 / 7.5 | 82.4 / 89.2 | 4.5 |
| Harris 2024 | 55 | 72.6 / 99.0 | 22.6 / 1.0 | 17.6 |
| Democrat | 73 | 68.6 / 97.5 | 16.5 / 1.0 | 14.4 |
| Republican | 98 | 11.8 / 12.9 | 77.4 / 83.2 | 3.8 |
| Independent | 29 | 34.3 / 49.5 | 46.2 / 36.4 | 8.8 |
| Less than $100,000 | 120 | 34.0 / 44.6 | 52.7 / 45.5 | 6.2 |
| $100k or more | 72 | 37.3 / 58.0 | 49.4 / 37.0 | 10.7 |
| Not college graduate | 137 | 33.6 / 40.4 | 52.5 / 48.5 | 4.8 |
| College graduate | 63 | 39.5 / 64.7 | 47.9 / 32.8 | 12.6 |
| White | 173 | 33.3 / 51.0 | 53.5 / 42.0 | 9.2 |
| Non-white | 27 | 49.3 / 46.0 | 35.6 / 42.0 | 4.1 |
| White - Not College Graduate | 120 | 30.9 / 40.0 | 55.5 / 50.0 | 5.9 |
| White - College Graduate | 53 | 38.8 / 66.3 | 49.0 / 31.2 | 13.8 |
| Men - White - Not College Graduate | 61 | 27.6 / 40.0 | 58.4 / 49.0 | 9.0 |
| Men - White - College Graduate | 25 | 43.9 / 61.4 | 41.5 / 35.6 | 8.8 |
| Women - White - Not College Graduate | 59 | 34.3 / 40.4 | 52.5 / 50.5 | 3.1 |
| Women - White - College Graduate | 28 | 34.5 / 70.0 | 55.2 / 28.0 | 17.8 |
| Under 45 | 79 | 40.2 / 58.0 | 44.9 / 28.0 | 10.7 |
| 45 or older | 121 | 32.5 / 45.5 | 55.0 / 50.5 | 6.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 32 | 36.6 / 52.5 | 49.8 / 29.7 | 11.3 |
| 45 to 64 | 72 | 33.5 / 41.0 | 54.8 / 55.0 | 3.9 |
| 65 or older | 49 | 30.9 / 50.5 | 55.4 / 46.5 | 9.8 |
| Men | 97 | 34.4 / 47.0 | 51.1 / 45.0 | 7.6 |
| Women | 103 | 36.4 / 52.5 | 51.0 / 40.4 | 8.0 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, Iowa
Approve · synthetic42.7%53.3% disapprove
Approve · polls42.4%53.8% disapprove
Net gap+0.8synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | OCT 06, 2026 | 650 (LV) | 47.0 | 45.0 |
| SSRS | OCT 05, 2026 | 801 (LV) | 45.0 | 43.0 |
| Suffolk University | OCT 04, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 44.0 | 48.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | OCT 01, 2026 | 606 (LV) | 48.0 | 47.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | SEP 30, 2026 | 1,048 (LV) | 43.0 | 47.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | SEP 29, 2026 | 738 (LV) | 47.0 | 46.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | SEP 29, 2026 | 738 (LV) | 49.0 | 47.0 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | SEP 29, 2026 | 738 (LV) | 51.0 | 49.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.