Iowa's 1st congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
SyntheticD+0.6Christina Bohannan
Poll average · 1 pollsD+5.2
Gap−4.6synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Christina Bohannan
40.5 synthetic41.2 polls
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
39.9 synthetic36.1 polls
Michael Bridgford
7.4 synthetic11.3 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 2.4 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- —
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President (Iowa statewide, standing in for the district)
Approve · synthetic41.1%54.7% disapprove
Approve · polls42.4%53.8% disapprove
Net gap−2.2synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R | I |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | JUL 16, 2026 | 705 (LV) | 40.0 | 35.0 | 11.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | JUN 19, 2025 | 555 (V) | 43.0 | 39.0 | — |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.