South Carolina
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+7.1Darline Graham
Poll average · 8 pollsR+3.3
Gap−3.8synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Darline Graham
48.7 synthetic45.8 polls
Annie Andrews
42.2 synthetic42.9 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 1.6 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 8.5 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Rasmussen Reports (R), shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | D | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans | 92 | 86.2 / 93.6 | 13.8 / 6.4 | 7.4 |
| Democrats | 78 | 15.2 / 10.2 | 84.8 / 89.8 | 5.0 |
| Unaffiliated | 30 | 45.6 / 31.0 | 41.0 / 49.0 | 9.7 |
| Men | 90 | 55.6 / 54.8 | 44.4 / 45.2 | 0.7 |
| Women | 110 | 51.9 / 50.0 | 48.1 / 50.0 | 1.9 |
| White | 137 | 62.5 / 66.0 | 37.5 / 34.0 | 3.5 |
| Black | 39 | 27.0 / 17.9 | 73.0 / 82.1 | 9.1 |
| Hispanic | 11 | 47.7 / 38.0 | 52.3 / 62.0 | 9.6 |
| Other minorities | 13 | 41.1 / 59.5 | 58.9 / 40.5 | 18.4 |
| age 18-29 | 23 | 49.4 / 37.0 | 50.6 / 63.0 | 12.5 |
| Trump 2024 voters (Graham share) | 71 | 100.0 / 100.0 | — | 0.0 |
| Harris 2024 voters (Andrews share) | 48 | — | 100.0 / 100.0 | 0.0 |
| age 18-29 | 23 | 44.6 / 18.3 | 45.6 / 59.7 | 13.1 |
| age 50-64 | 24 | 47.1 / 51.0 | 44.6 / 36.0 | 4.3 |
| age 65+ | 53 | 49.1 / 50.5 | 41.8 / 38.5 | 3.0 |
| Female | 110 | 47.2 / 35.3 | 43.6 / 49.6 | 6.0 |
| Male | 90 | 50.7 / 53.2 | 40.5 / 33.5 | 3.5 |
| Asian | 3 | 18.4 / 78.5 | 71.5 / 21.5 | 30.0 |
| Black | 39 | 24.4 / 31.5 | 66.1 / 50.0 | 8.0 |
| Hispanic | 11 | 42.9 / 15.7 | 47.2 / 40.3 | 17.1 |
| Other | 10 | 42.7 / 6.5 | 48.7 / 86.9 | 19.1 |
| White | 137 | 57.0 / 48.2 | 34.2 / 39.0 | 4.8 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among South Carolina voters
Approve · synthetic40.1%55.8% disapprove
Approve · polls42.0%51.0% disapprove
Net gap−6.7synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D | C | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | OCT 08, 2026 | 837 (LV) | 49.0 | 45.0 | — | — |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | SEP 29, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 46.0 | 45.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | SEP 25, 2026 | 1,087 (LV) | 43.0 | 42.0 | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | SEP 14, 2026 | 1,006 (LV) | 48.0 | 43.0 | — | — |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | SEP 09, 2026 | 1,200 (LV) | 45.0 | 43.0 | — | — |
| Abacus Data | AUG 28, 2026 | 306 (LV) | 55.0 | 42.0 | — | — |
| Abacus Data | AUG 28, 2026 | 500 (RV) | 47.0 | 48.0 | — | — |
| Impact Research (D) | AUG 24, 2026 | 700 (LV) | 41.0 | 41.0 | — | 5.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.