New York's 17th congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticD+15.1Cait Conley
Poll average · 2 pollsR+0.5
Gap+15.6synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Mike Lawler
37.2 synthetic47.8 polls
Cait Conley
50.3 synthetic47.3 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 7.1 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 9.2 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Emerson College / PIX11, shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | D | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| men | 93 | 36.0 / 49.4 | 51.4 / 44.1 | 8.9 |
| women | 107 | 38.2 / 42.1 | 49.5 / 52.0 | 4.3 |
| age 18-39 | 47 | 37.9 / 33.9 | 47.1 / 55.5 | 5.6 |
| White | 106 | 41.0 / 48.8 | 47.1 / 44.5 | 5.2 |
| Hispanic or Latino | 23 | 35.4 / 53.3 | 51.5 / 39.6 | 11.9 |
| Black | 33 | 26.4 / 15.6 | 58.4 / 84.4 | 17.4 |
| high school or less | 60 | 37.5 / 59.6 | 48.7 / 37.4 | 14.7 |
| associate degree / some college | 52 | 41.1 / 46.6 | 44.7 / 49.2 | 6.7 |
| college graduate or postgraduate | 88 | 34.8 / 40.4 | 54.7 / 51.1 | 3.8 |
| registered Democrats | 105 | 20.9 / 11.6 | 67.2 / 80.3 | 8.8 |
| registered Republicans | 54 | 66.8 / 90.1 | 22.7 / 9.9 | 15.6 |
| independent / other registration | 41 | 39.4 / 50.2 | 43.9 / 38.5 | 7.2 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President
Approve · synthetic26.5%69.8% disapprove
Approve · polls43.3%53.3% disapprove
Net gap−33.3synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | SEP 30, 2026 | 400 (LV) | 50.0 | 47.0 |
| Emerson College / PIX11 | SEP 29, 2026 | 400 (LV) | 46.0 | 48.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | JUL 22, 2026 | 1,292 (LV) | 50.0 | 45.0 |
| FM3 Research (D) | JUL 01, 2026 | 509 (LV) | 45.0 | 51.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.