Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district
U.S. House of Representatives
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+6.5Brian Fitzpatrick
Poll average · 3 pollsR+5.0
Gap−1.5synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Brian Fitzpatrick
49.1 synthetic48.3 polls
Bob Harvie
43.1 synthetic43.7 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 0.5 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- —
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President
Approve · synthetic30.7%65.6% disapprove
Approve · polls38.0%59.0% disapprove
Net gap−13.8synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | SEP 14, 2026 | 400 (RV) | 49.0 | 40.0 |
| GQR (D) | AUG 23, 2026 | 400 (LV) | 49.0 | 48.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | AUG 09, 2026 | 500 (LV) | 47.0 | 43.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | MAR 22, 2026 | 400 (LV) | 48.0 | 42.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | OCT 11, 2025 | 585 (LV) | 41.0 | 41.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.