Tennessee
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticR+33.9Bill Hagerty
Poll average · 1 pollsR+27.5
Gap−6.4synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Bill Hagerty
59.2 synthetic61.1 polls
Marquita Bradshaw
29.3 synthetic34.7 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 4.9 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 7.6 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Targoz Market Research for the Beacon Center of Tennessee, shares within the group.
| Group | n | R | D | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tennessee | 73 | 63.8 / 60.2 | 26.3 / 24.7 | 3.4 |
| Middle Tennessee | 84 | 61.0 / 54.2 | 26.6 / 36.5 | 6.6 |
| West Tennessee | 43 | 47.9 / 43.5 | 39.6 / 43.5 | 3.0 |
| Republicans | 101 | 82.6 / 87.9 | 9.2 / 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Democrats | 66 | 24.3 / 4.2 | 62.9 / 88.5 | 17.1 |
| independents or other | 33 | 54.7 / 37.8 | 25.2 / 36.6 | 11.3 |
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, Tennessee
Approve · synthetic41.6%54.4% disapprove
Approve · polls46.0%49.5% disapprove
Net gap−9.3synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | R | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | AUG 26, 2026 | 1,157 (RV) | 51.0 | 31.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.