Michigan

U.S. Senate

14days to polls

The call

200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.

SyntheticD+9.9Abdul El-Sayed

Poll average · 31 pollsD+3.5

Gap+6.4synthetic − polls, points

SyntheticPoll average

Abdul El-Sayed

49.2 synthetic48.4 polls

Mike Rogers

40.3 synthetic45.1 polls

Against the polls

Share error: 3.2 pts per option
Crosstab error: 5.1 pts
Sample: 200 synthetic voters

By group

Each cell is synthetic / Emerson College / Nexstar, shares within the group.

Group	n	D	R	Error
under 50	74	51.3 / 55.0	35.7 / 36.8	2.7
50 and over	77	46.6 / 43.6	41.4 / 51.7	5.2
men	95	44.5 / 41.2	42.7 / 52.6	5.0
women	105	51.4 / 54.7	36.6 / 39.2	2.9
White	153	43.3 / 42.9	44.2 / 51.1	3.4
Black	26	70.9 / 81.1	17.1 / 11.8	5.1
Hispanic	9	49.9 / 53.6	37.9 / 44.2	5.0
no four-year degree	132	45.0 / 45.0	42.6 / 48.1	3.0
college graduate	68	54.2 / 53.1	33.6 / 41.9	4.2
men	95	44.5 / 45.0	42.7 / 53.0	5.4
women	105	52.5 / 54.0	37.4 / 45.0	6.1
White	153	44.2 / 46.5	45.2 / 52.5	6.4
Black	26	72.3 / 77.0	17.4 / 22.0	6.2
non-White	47	65.0 / 68.0	24.8 / 31.0	6.1
White men	76	40.6 / 43.0	46.6 / 55.0	5.4
White women	77	46.9 / 49.0	42.8 / 50.0	6.2
under 35	47	56.7 / 52.5	43.3 / 47.5	4.2
65 or older	50	44.1 / 50.0	44.5 / 47.0	4.2
under 45	74	52.4 / 54.0	36.5 / 46.0	7.4
45 or older	126	47.3 / 48.0	42.6 / 50.0	5.4
college degree	68	54.2 / 53.0	33.6 / 45.0	5.7
no degree	132	45.9 / 47.5	43.5 / 51.5	6.4
White, college degree	51	53.0 / 52.0	34.8 / 46.0	5.6
White, no degree	102	39.2 / 43.0	50.2 / 56.0	6.5
White men, degree	22	50.0 / 49.0	36.2 / 49.0	6.4
White men, no degree	54	37.6 / 39.0	52.0 / 59.0	5.6
White women, degree	29	56.3 / 55.6	34.4 / 43.4	6.0
White women, no degree	48	40.9 / 46.0	48.1 / 53.0	6.6
income under $50k	50	46.9 / 54.0	41.9 / 45.0	6.8
income $50k-$99k	67	52.6 / 44.0	36.2 / 55.0	12.5
income $100k+	81	52.9 / 53.0	47.1 / 47.0	0.1
union household	36	50.8 / 53.5	39.0 / 44.4	5.5
men	95	44.5 / 49.0	42.7 / 48.0	4.8
women	105	51.4 / 53.5	36.6 / 41.4	3.5
White	153	43.3 / 50.5	44.2 / 46.5	4.7
non-White	47	63.8 / 54.1	24.3 / 37.8	6.8
not college graduate	132	45.0 / 47.5	42.6 / 47.5	3.7
college graduate	68	54.2 / 60.6	33.6 / 35.4	4.1
White, not college graduate	102	38.3 / 44.8	49.1 / 51.7	4.6
White, college graduate	51	53.0 / 62.2	34.8 / 34.7	4.6
White men, not college	54	36.7 / 44.0	50.8 / 54.0	5.2
White men, college	22	50.0 / 57.7	36.2 / 39.2	5.3
White women, not college	48	40.0 / 46.0	47.1 / 50.0	4.4
White women, college	29	55.3 / 66.0	33.8 / 30.0	5.4
under 45	74	51.3 / 64.3	35.7 / 32.7	6.5
45 or older	126	46.3 / 44.0	41.7 / 51.0	4.6
30 to 44	27	55.1 / 61.3	32.7 / 35.2	4.6
45 to 64	76	47.8 / 45.8	39.9 / 49.8	4.9
65 or older	50	44.1 / 41.8	44.5 / 53.1	4.3
income under $100k	117	49.1 / 52.0	37.8 / 43.9	4.5
income $100k or more	81	46.8 / 53.0	41.7 / 43.0	3.8
White	153	49.5 / 47.2	50.5 / 52.8	2.3
Black	26	80.6 / 88.8	19.4 / 11.2	8.1
men	95	51.0 / 44.0	49.0 / 56.0	7.1
women	105	58.4 / 60.2	41.6 / 39.8	1.8

The government

Donald Trump's job approval as President, Michigan

Approve · synthetic33.5%62.9% disapprove

Approve · polls40.0%57.2% disapprove

Net gap−12.2synthetic − polls

Latest polls

Newest first.

Pollster	Fieldwork to	Sample	D	R
InsiderAdvantage (R)	OCT 10, 2026	1,200 (LV)	48.0	46.0
Wedgewood Polls	OCT 09, 2026	607 (LV)	53.0	47.0
Quantus Insights (R)	OCT 06, 2026	762 (LV)	48.0	47.0
YouGov	OCT 04, 2026	3,949 (LV)	49.0	48.0
Mitchell Research & Communications	OCT 01, 2026	682 (LV)	46.0	41.0
Z to A Research (D)	OCT 01, 2026	483 (LV)	49.0	42.0
Trafalgar Group (R)	SEP 30, 2026	1,085 (LV)	47.0	45.0
Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)	SEP 28, 2026	1,028 (LV)	50.0	49.0

← United States midterm elections, 2026

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.