Virginia
U.S. Senate
14days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
SyntheticD+37.3Mark Warner
Poll average · 2 pollsD+21.8
Gap+15.5synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Mark Warner
62.7 synthetic52.5 polls
Bert Mizusawa
25.4 synthetic30.7 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 5.1 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- —
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
The government
Donald Trump's job approval as President, among Virginia voters
Approve · synthetic28.4%68.0% disapprove
Approve · polls31.2%62.9% disapprove
Net gap−7.9synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | D | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | JUN 16, 2026 | 996 (LV) | 51.0 | 33.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (R) | MAY 05, 2026 | 1,047 (LV) | 55.0 | 29.0 |
← United States midterm elections, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.