Brazil general election, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro finished first on 4 October with 47.0% to Lula's 45.2%, inverting the final polls. The runoff has tightened since: the poll average now has Flávio ahead 51.1 to 48.9 of valid votes. Six states also choose their governor on 25 October.
Synthetic call made 5days to runoff
The call · President and Vice-President
600 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticPT+4.3Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Poll average · 10 pollsPL+2.2
Gap−6.5synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Flávio Bolsonaro
47.9 synthetic51.1 polls
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
52.1 synthetic48.9 polls
Governor runoffs · 6
The states where no candidate for governor passed 50% on 4 October. Grey states settled their governor in round one.
Synthetic lead, darker for widerDecided in round one
Select a state for its runoff.
Races · 7
Each race has its own page.
| Race | Synthetic | Polls | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| President and Vice-President | |||
| President and Vice-President | PT+4.3 | PL+2.2 | −6.5 |
| Governors | |||
| Acre | PP+28.0 | PP+27.4 | +0.6 |
| Amazonas | PSD+40.1 | PSD+13.2 | +26.9 |
| Distrito Federal | PP+9.1 | PP+20.8 | −11.7 |
| Espírito Santo | MDB+0.4 | REPUBLICANOS+10.6 | −11.0 |
| Rio Grande do Norte | UNIÃO+15.1 | UNIÃO+4.2 | +10.9 |
| Tocantins | UNIÃO+20.8 | PSDB+10.0 | −30.8 |
Background
- Electoral system
- President: two-round majority system (>50% of valid votes to win round one, else top-two runoff on 25 Oct). Chamber of Deputies: open-list proportional representation across 27 constituencies. Senate: two seats per state/DF this cycle (two-thirds renewal) via plurality block vote. Compulsory voting.
- Incumbent
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Workers' Party (PT)
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.