President and Vice-President
Brazil general election, 2026
5days to runoff
The call
600 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticPT+4.3Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Poll average · 10 pollsPL+2.2
Gap−6.5synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Flávio Bolsonaro
47.9 synthetic51.1 polls
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
52.1 synthetic48.9 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 3.2 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- —
- Sample
- 600 synthetic voters
Latest polls
Newest first; shares of valid votes where the pollster gives them.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | PL | PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel (Bloomberg) | OCT 18, 2026 | 4998 (online) | 51.1 | 48.9 |
| Gerp | OCT 16, 2026 | 2,400 | 52.0 | 48.0 |
| Datafolha | OCT 15, 2026 | 2,520 | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| PoderData (Aya) | OCT 15, 2026 | 3000 (telephone, IVR) | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| CNT/MDA | OCT 15, 2026 | 2,014 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| Quaest (Genial/Globo) | OCT 13, 2026 | 2154 (in person) | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| PoderData (Aya) | OCT 12, 2026 | 3000 (telephone) | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| BTG/Nexus | OCT 12, 2026 | 2002 (telephone) | 52.0 | 48.0 |
← Brazil general election, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.