Tocantins
Governor of Tocantins
5days to runoff
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticUNIÃO+20.8Professora Dorinha
Poll average · 3 pollsPSDB+10.0
Gap−30.8synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Vicentinho Júnior
39.6 synthetic55.0 polls
Professora Dorinha
60.4 synthetic45.0 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 15.4 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 12.2 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / AtlasIntel, shares within the group.
| Group | n | PSDB | UNIÃO | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homem | 115 | 40.1 / 41.7 | 55.1 / 49.9 | 3.5 |
| Mulher | 85 | 34.1 / 47.4 | 60.2 / 37.6 | 15.1 |
| Ensino Fundamental e Médio | 163 | 36.1 / 42.8 | 58.5 / 47.1 | 7.6 |
| Ensino Superior | 37 | 43.8 / 49.2 | 52.3 / 35.3 | 11.3 |
| 16-24 | 30 | 31.8 / 46.0 | 63.7 / 43.3 | 13.6 |
| 25-34 | 33 | 33.9 / 49.1 | 61.1 / 43.0 | 12.1 |
| 35-44 | 60 | 39.0 / 41.2 | 56.1 / 47.8 | 5.5 |
| 45-59 | 43 | 32.0 / 47.4 | 61.8 / 42.0 | 13.2 |
| 60+ | 34 | 50.7 / 37.9 | 44.4 / 41.7 | 10.3 |
| Araguaína | 159 | 36.1 / 48.4 | 58.8 / 46.4 | 8.3 |
| Região Intermediária de Palmas | 159 | 36.1 / 44.3 | 58.8 / 43.5 | 10.2 |
| Gurupi | 159 | 36.1 / 38.6 | 58.8 / 35.6 | 15.5 |
| Capital | 41 | 43.4 / 41.3 | 51.4 / 45.5 | 5.3 |
| Renda até R$2.000 | 91 | 34.9 / 49.7 | 59.3 / 37.6 | 14.5 |
| Renda R$2.000-3.000 | 91 | 34.9 / 37.0 | 59.3 / 57.5 | 1.4 |
| Renda acima de R$10.000 | 42 | 38.7 / 46.1 | 55.2 / 39.0 | 10.8 |
| Católico | 120 | 37.5 / 49.3 | 57.7 / 37.4 | 13.5 |
| Evangélico | 61 | 35.8 / 49.2 | 58.7 / 44.4 | 9.6 |
| Outra religião | 6 | 55.3 / 23.6 | 38.2 / 45.0 | 21.1 |
| Crente sem religião | 13 | 37.6 / 17.8 | 55.9 / 70.4 | 13.2 |
| Agnóstico ou ateu | 13 | 37.6 / 50.5 | 55.9 / 31.6 | 16.2 |
| Voto 2022 Lula | 74 | 43.2 / 32.2 | 52.9 / 54.3 | 7.3 |
| Voto 2022 Bolsonaro | 70 | 35.1 / 56.1 | 61.5 / 36.4 | 16.7 |
| Voto 2022 branco/nulo | 5 | 39.4 / 64.0 | 52.6 / 2.5 | 33.4 |
| Voto 2022 não votou | 38 | 27.9 / 46.5 | 59.9 / 35.8 | 16.1 |
The government
Approval of President Lula's performance among voters in Tocantins
Approve · synthetic38.3%50.8% disapprove
Approve · polls43.0%52.0% disapprove
Net gap−3.5synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first; shares of valid votes where the pollster gives them.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | PSDB | UNIÃO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná Pesquisas (Fieto) | OCT 17, 2026 | 1,500 | 56.5 | 43.5 |
| Quaest (TV Anhanguera) | OCT 13, 2026 | 1,098 | 53.8 | 46.2 |
| Seta (Fieto) | OCT 10, 2026 | 1,200 | 54.6 | 45.4 |
| Directa (Trilhas do Cerrado) | OCT 09, 2026 | 1,200 | 47.2 | 52.8 |
| AtlasIntel | OCT 02, 2026 | 838 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| Real Time Big Data | OCT 01, 2026 | 1,600 | 43.0 | 48.0 |
| Quaest | SEP 22, 2026 | 804 | 36.0 | 50.0 |
| Paraná Pesquisas | SEP 14, 2026 | — | 42.3 | 46.8 |
← Brazil general election, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.