Rio Grande do Norte
Governor of Rio Grande do Norte
5days to runoff
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticUNIÃO+15.1Allyson Bezerra
Poll average · 3 pollsUNIÃO+4.2
Gap+10.9synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Allyson Bezerra
57.6 synthetic52.1 polls
Cadu Xavier
42.4 synthetic47.9 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 5.5 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 8.6 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / AtlasIntel, shares within the group.
| Group | n | UNIÃO | PT | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homem | 111 | 56.1 / 50.4 | 38.9 / 34.0 | 7.1 |
| Mulher | 89 | 53.2 / 42.8 | 42.1 / 46.1 | 6.9 |
| 16-24 | 28 | 55.6 / 53.5 | 39.1 / 38.7 | 1.7 |
| 25-34 | 32 | 59.9 / 54.5 | 35.2 / 34.3 | 4.2 |
| 35-44 | 52 | 51.8 / 49.8 | 43.3 / 38.0 | 4.8 |
| 45-59 | 48 | 50.8 / 46.4 | 44.6 / 38.5 | 7.0 |
| 60+ | 40 | 58.8 / 32.0 | 36.5 / 50.3 | 17.8 |
| Ensino Superior | 29 | 55.0 / 42.1 | 38.7 / 44.6 | 8.6 |
| Ensino Fundamental e Médio | 171 | 54.7 / 47.8 | 40.7 / 39.0 | 5.7 |
| Renda até R$2.000 | 110 | 53.3 / 52.3 | 41.9 / 40.8 | 1.4 |
| Renda R$2.000-3.000 | 110 | 53.3 / 52.0 | 41.9 / 35.9 | 4.8 |
| Renda acima de R$10.000 | 33 | 65.4 / 42.9 | 29.4 / 43.9 | 15.0 |
| Católico | 136 | 54.0 / 39.6 | 41.1 / 48.0 | 9.6 |
| Evangélico | 43 | 61.4 / 63.4 | 32.9 / 17.7 | 10.1 |
| Outra religião | 7 | 45.1 / 40.1 | 51.3 / 48.6 | 5.1 |
| Crente sem religião | 14 | 48.2 / 63.9 | 49.2 / 28.8 | 13.6 |
| Agnóstico ou ateu | 14 | 48.2 / 19.5 | 49.2 / 63.5 | 19.1 |
| Oeste Potiguar | 108 | 50.4 / 49.2 | 45.0 / 44.5 | 1.1 |
| Capital | 45 | 67.9 / 41.7 | 26.7 / 35.3 | 17.4 |
| Central Potiguar | 108 | 50.4 / 34.5 | 45.0 / 44.4 | 11.0 |
| Voto 2022 Lula | 96 | 38.1 / 32.6 | 58.6 / 63.4 | 3.7 |
| Voto 2022 Bolsonaro | 54 | 79.9 / 67.4 | 16.1 / 2.8 | 17.2 |
| Voto 2022 branco/nulo | 5 | 72.9 / 70.6 | 17.0 / 7.7 | 7.7 |
| Voto 2022 não votou | 32 | 58.3 / 51.2 | 29.5 / 37.3 | 5.2 |
The government
Approval of President Lula's performance among voters in Rio Grande do Norte
Approve · synthetic40.3%49.4% disapprove
Approve · polls56.0%41.0% disapprove
Net gap−24.2synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first; shares of valid votes where the pollster gives them.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | PT | UNIÃO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affare | OCT 12, 2026 | 1,350 | 52.6 | 47.4 |
| Quaest (Inter TV) | OCT 12, 2026 | 1,098 | 48.3 | 51.7 |
| Seta | OCT 10, 2026 | 1,500 | 42.7 | 57.3 |
| AtlasIntel | OCT 02, 2026 | 1,256 | 46.4 | 53.6 |
| Seta | SEP 24, 2026 | 1,500 | 22.0 | 43.2 |
| Quaest | SEP 24, 2026 | 804 | 30.0 | 50.0 |
← Brazil general election, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.