Distrito Federal
Governor of the Federal District
5days to runoff
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticPP+9.1Celina Leão
Poll average · 4 pollsPP+20.8
Gap−11.7synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Celina Leão
54.6 synthetic60.4 polls
Leandro Grass
45.4 synthetic39.6 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 5.8 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 10.0 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / AtlasIntel, shares within the group.
| Group | n | PP | PT | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homem | 114 | 42.6 / 55.9 | 36.9 / 34.6 | 6.6 |
| Mulher | 86 | 45.6 / 50.2 | 36.1 / 44.8 | 6.7 |
| 16-24 | 28 | 36.1 / 43.7 | 40.3 / 50.2 | 8.7 |
| 25-34 | 33 | 49.9 / 53.2 | 34.5 / 41.2 | 5.0 |
| 35-44 | 57 | 46.0 / 60.3 | 33.8 / 37.4 | 8.9 |
| 45-59 | 49 | 41.5 / 57.4 | 37.6 / 32.2 | 8.0 |
| 60+ | 33 | 44.2 / 42.9 | 38.7 / 47.3 | 4.3 |
| Renda até R$2.000 | 62 | 38.7 / 70.3 | 41.6 / 22.1 | 15.8 |
| Renda R$2.000-3.000 | 62 | 38.7 / 68.4 | 41.6 / 16.0 | 16.8 |
| Renda acima de R$10.000 | 70 | 46.5 / 47.2 | 35.6 / 45.5 | 5.3 |
| Ensino Fundamental e Médio | 133 | 42.5 / 58.8 | 39.7 / 32.5 | 8.1 |
| Ensino Superior | 67 | 46.6 / 46.9 | 30.4 / 47.3 | 8.6 |
| Católico | 100 | 43.3 / 47.3 | 37.8 / 46.2 | 6.2 |
| Evangélico | 59 | 48.4 / 81.0 | 32.4 / 13.8 | 16.3 |
| Outra religião | 20 | 36.7 / 37.6 | 35.6 / 57.4 | 11.3 |
| Crente sem religião | 21 | 40.7 / 40.0 | 43.1 / 54.7 | 5.8 |
| Agnóstico ou ateu | 21 | 40.7 / 10.6 | 43.1 / 69.1 | 16.3 |
| Voto 2022 Lula | 62 | 20.6 / 5.0 | 67.6 / 94.1 | 13.2 |
| Voto 2022 Bolsonaro | 90 | 65.5 / 86.8 | 18.8 / 3.5 | 10.6 |
| Voto 2022 branco/nulo | 6 | 23.8 / 38.4 | 24.0 / 31.2 | 10.8 |
| Voto 2022 não votou | 30 | 29.1 / 54.3 | 31.3 / 38.8 | 16.3 |
The government
Approval of President Lula's performance among voters in Distrito Federal
Approve · synthetic35.1%55.5% disapprove
Approve · polls37.0%62.0% disapprove
Net gap+4.7synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first; shares of valid votes where the pollster gives them.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | PP | PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Time Big Data | OCT 13, 2026 | 1,600 | 60.0 | 40.0 |
| Quaest (Globo) | OCT 11, 2026 | 1104 (in person) | 61.6 | 38.4 |
| Datafolha (TV Globo / Folha de S.Paulo) | OCT 07, 2026 | 910 (in person) | 60.0 | 40.0 |
| IGAPE | OCT 07, 2026 | 1,200 | 55.8 | 36.2 |
← Brazil general election, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.