Espírito Santo
Governor of Espírito Santo
5days to runoff
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticMDB+0.4Ricardo Ferraço
Poll average · 1 pollsREPUBLICANOS+10.6
Gap−11.0synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Lorenzo Pazolini
49.8 synthetic55.3 polls
Ricardo Ferraço
50.2 synthetic44.7 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 5.5 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 9.2 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / AtlasIntel, shares within the group.
| Group | n | REPUBLICANOS | MDB | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homem | 117 | 39.2 / 48.5 | 41.3 / 35.5 | 4.7 |
| Mulher | 83 | 41.0 / 44.7 | 38.8 / 46.6 | 5.8 |
| 16-24 | 27 | 40.5 / 30.6 | 36.8 / 42.1 | 5.3 |
| 25-34 | 28 | 41.8 / 44.8 | 39.2 / 48.6 | 6.2 |
| 35-44 | 54 | 36.1 / 58.3 | 42.2 / 34.9 | 11.1 |
| 45-59 | 49 | 36.0 / 59.3 | 46.5 / 35.3 | 11.7 |
| 60+ | 42 | 47.9 / 36.1 | 33.4 / 44.6 | 6.7 |
| Ensino Fundamental e Médio | 174 | 40.2 / 46.8 | 39.6 / 40.5 | 3.8 |
| Ensino Superior | 26 | 38.4 / 46.1 | 45.0 / 43.8 | 3.9 |
| Renda até R$2.000 | 94 | 38.9 / 45.2 | 43.5 / 41.4 | 3.2 |
| Renda R$2.000-3.000 | 94 | 38.9 / 53.3 | 43.5 / 34.1 | 7.2 |
| Renda acima de R$10.000 | 36 | 32.7 / 46.5 | 43.0 / 40.2 | 6.9 |
| Vitória + Vila Velha + Serra | 98 | 37.5 / 44.2 | 42.3 / 45.1 | 4.8 |
| Cachoeiro de Itapemirim | 102 | 42.3 / 47.2 | 38.3 / 49.4 | 8.0 |
| Colatina | 102 | 42.3 / 52.0 | 38.3 / 40.4 | 5.9 |
| São Mateus | 102 | 42.3 / 55.3 | 38.3 / 28.4 | 6.5 |
| Católico | 98 | 40.0 / 41.3 | 40.2 / 52.0 | 6.5 |
| Evangélico | 70 | 41.8 / 61.9 | 40.1 / 22.8 | 10.3 |
| Crente sem religião | 22 | 33.3 / 36.4 | 40.2 / 46.4 | 4.6 |
| Outra religião | 10 | 40.2 / 23.7 | 41.8 / 68.2 | 13.2 |
| Agnóstico ou ateu | 22 | 33.3 / 27.9 | 40.2 / 34.2 | 5.7 |
| Voto 2022 Bolsonaro | 83 | 55.6 / 81.5 | 30.7 / 16.1 | 13.0 |
| Voto 2022 Lula | 60 | 24.6 / 10.4 | 57.9 / 73.2 | 8.4 |
| Voto 2022 branco/nulo | 7 | 24.1 / 39.9 | 30.5 / 9.8 | 12.7 |
| Voto 2022 não votou | 39 | 32.1 / 23.3 | 37.1 / 49.8 | 9.5 |
| Direita bolsonarista | 34 | 43.9 / 83.5 | 37.5 / 13.0 | 19.8 |
| Direita não bolsonarista | 51 | 32.4 / 78.8 | 47.7 / 13.4 | 23.2 |
| Esquerda lulista | 29 | 47.5 / 3.9 | 32.3 / 82.7 | 25.2 |
| Esquerda não lulista | 23 | 32.8 / 13.1 | 48.4 / 71.0 | 11.3 |
| Independente | 63 | 43.1 / 22.0 | 36.6 / 56.8 | 11.1 |
The government
Approval of President Lula's performance among voters in Espírito Santo
Approve · synthetic34.1%56.5% disapprove
Approve · polls39.0%58.0% disapprove
Net gap−3.4synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first; shares of valid votes where the pollster gives them.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | REPUBLICANOS | MDB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quaest (TV Gazeta) | OCT 13, 2026 | 1,098 | 55.3 | 44.7 |
| AtlasIntel | OCT 02, 2026 | 1,226 | 52.9 | 47.1 |
| Real Time Big Data | SEP 29, 2026 | — | 41.0 | 48.0 |
| Perfil/ES Hoje | SEP 24, 2026 | 1,800 | 41.7 | 42.5 |
| Quaest | SEP 24, 2026 | 804 | 38.0 | 43.0 |
← Brazil general election, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.