Amazonas
Governor of Amazonas
5days to runoff
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticPSD+40.1Omar Aziz
Poll average · 2 pollsPSD+13.2
Gap+26.9synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Omar Aziz
70.0 synthetic56.6 polls
Maria do Carmo Seffair
30.0 synthetic43.4 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 13.4 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- —
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
The government
Approval of President Lula's performance among voters in Amazonas
Approve · synthetic38.1%51.3% disapprove
Approve · polls46.0%49.0% disapprove
Net gap−10.2synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first; shares of valid votes where the pollster gives them.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | PSD | PL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quaest (Rede Amazônica) | OCT 12, 2026 | 1,098 | 58.0 | 42.0 |
| PoderData (RealTimeAM) | OCT 11, 2026 | 1,200 | 56.0 | 44.0 |
| Real Time Big Data | OCT 01, 2026 | — | 45.0 | 43.0 |
| Quaest | SEP 23, 2026 | 804 | 44.0 | 42.0 |
| PoderData | SEP 23, 2026 | — | 52.0 | 38.0 |
| Projeta | SEP 18, 2026 | — | 53.0 | 35.9 |
← Brazil general election, 2026
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.