Spanish general election, 2026
A snap election called over housing. Congress rejected the government's emergency housing decrees on 2 October, with Junts voting alongside PP and Vox.
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
Blocs
Right is PP + Vox; left is PSOE + Sumar + Podemos.
Seats at stake
Congress seats are allocated by D'Hondt in each of the 52 provinces. The call is national, so no seat projection is made; the map shows what each province is worth.
Against the polls
- Share error
- 2.6 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 5.9 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / CIS (Barómetro de septiembre 2026, estudio 3577), shares within the group.
| Group | n | PP | PSOE | Vox | Sumar | Podemos | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18-24 | 16 | 30.5 / 13.0 | 24.1 / 30.9 | 7.9 / 23.7 | 16.3 / 7.6 | 8.7 / 4.7 | 6.8 |
| 25-34 | 19 | 28.6 / 17.7 | 23.6 / 22.1 | 20.9 / 29.6 | 9.4 / 11.5 | 2.9 / 3.8 | 3.6 |
| 35-44 | 31 | 36.0 / 24.9 | 24.3 / 22.8 | 8.1 / 19.1 | 15.9 / 7.9 | 3.8 / 4.5 | 4.1 |
| 45-54 | 59 | 40.1 / 27.7 | 23.7 / 29.4 | 10.2 / 15.5 | 9.0 / 6.6 | 2.6 / 4.9 | 3.8 |
| 55-64 | 26 | 48.9 / 25.2 | 22.4 / 33.9 | 9.3 / 13.5 | 7.7 / 6.0 | 2.0 / 4.9 | 5.2 |
| 65+ | 49 | 41.3 / 26.6 | 30.1 / 47.2 | 6.7 / 7.7 | 8.0 / 5.2 | 2.8 / 2.6 | 4.2 |
| female | 106 | 34.6 / 23.8 | 29.8 / 38.1 | 6.0 / 13.9 | 12.4 / 6.8 | 3.8 / 3.5 | 4.2 |
| male | 94 | 43.9 / 24.4 | 20.4 / 28.6 | 13.5 / 17.8 | 7.7 / 7.1 | 2.6 / 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Andalusia | 37 | 40.3 / 25.9 | 27.1 / 30.4 | 13.3 / 20.8 | 9.9 / 7.3 | 2.5 / 3.2 | 5.0 |
| Catalonia | 32 | 20.2 / 10.4 | 32.8 / 35.5 | 7.2 / 12.4 | 14.3 / 5.1 | 3.7 / 4.3 | 5.2 |
| the Community of Madrid | 26 | 39.1 / 29.7 | 20.8 / 38.4 | 12.2 / 11.1 | 16.3 / 9.3 | 5.2 / 3.5 | 6.3 |
| the Valencian Community | 21 | 44.9 / 24.6 | 29.0 / 28.1 | 9.3 / 21.7 | 7.0 / 13.7 | 2.2 / 3.4 | 7.3 |
| Galicia | 14 | 58.1 / 32.7 | 20.5 / 36.2 | 7.9 / 14.8 | 5.6 / 3.0 | 1.4 / 2.1 | 8.9 |
| the Basque Country | 10 | 25.9 / 7.3 | 19.0 / 31.2 | 7.2 / 5.1 | 8.7 / 5.6 | 2.7 / 3.1 | 8.6 |
| Castile and León | 11 | 54.3 / 26.5 | 21.0 / 39.1 | 9.8 / 15.6 | 5.9 / 3.6 | 2.0 / 3.5 | 9.6 |
| the Canary Islands | 10 | 36.2 / 25.1 | 24.8 / 33.2 | 8.5 / 18.7 | 9.0 / 1.4 | 11.4 / 10.6 | 6.5 |
| under 30 | 16 | 34.9 / 34.8 | 27.5 / 23.5 | 9.0 / 25.6 | 18.6 / 11.7 | 9.9 / 4.5 | 6.6 |
The government
Confidence in Pedro Sánchez as prime minister (CIS: 'mucha' or 'bastante' confianza = approve; 'poca' or 'ninguna' = disapprove)
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | PP | PSOE | Vox | Sumar | Podemos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo | OCT 11, 2026 | — | 31.9 | 25.3 | 19.1 | 7.6 | 3.1 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | OCT 11, 2026 | 1,000 | 32.6 | 26.2 | 18.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 |
| Target Point/El Debate | OCT 09, 2026 | 1,002 | 32.0 | 25.9 | 18.7 | 6.9 | 3.4 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía | OCT 09, 2026 | 4,125 | 31.5 | 26.9 | 19.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 |
| 40dB/Prisa | OCT 08, 2026 | 800 | 31.9 | 28.1 | 18.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| GESOP/Prensa Ibérica | OCT 08, 2026 | 1,000 | 28.7 | 26.1 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 2.6 |
| GAD3/Vocento | OCT 08, 2026 | 1,077 | 31.4 | 26.4 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 2.3 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/Vozpópuli | OCT 08, 2026 | 1,000 | 33.4 | 25.3 | 19.6 | 5.4 | 3.3 |
Background
- Electoral system
- Congress: closed-list proportional representation in 50 provincial constituencies (D'Hondt, 3% threshold per constituency) plus single-seat Ceuta and Melilla; 176 for a majority. Senate: 209 seats by open-list partial block voting (four per peninsular province, island seats, one each for Ceuta and Melilla); a May 2026 reform gave Formentera its own senator.
- Incumbent
- Pedro Sánchez · PSOE
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.