Serbian parliamentary election, 2026
President Vučić called the vote more than a year early, after two years of student-led anti-corruption protests set off by the Novi Sad canopy collapse in November 2024. 250 seats, one national list vote.
Synthetic call made 5days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.
SyntheticSL+52.5Student List – Students Are Winning
Poll average · 5 pollsSNS+3.2
Gap−55.7synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
16.0 synthetic45.7 polls
Student List – Students Are Winning
51.4 synthetic42.8 polls
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!
7.5 synthetic5.0 polls
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić – Zdravko Ponoš
13.2 synthetic4.1 polls
Authentic Right – Dr. Miloš Jovanović – Boldly Serbian!
11.9 synthetic2.4 polls
Against the polls
- Share error
- 11.9 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- —
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
The government
Trust in Aleksandar Vučić (CRTA: trust in the president of the state). Vučić resigned as president on 27 September 2026.
Approve · synthetic7.7%87.4% disapprove
Approve · polls35.0%
Net gap−27.3synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | SNS | SL | SPS | PES | NADA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faktor Plus | SEP 20, 2026 | 986 | 48.6 | 37.1 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| CRTA (with Stanford DAL) | JUN 24, 2026 | 2,324 (face-to-face) | 35.7 | 44.9 | 3.8 | — | 1.5 |
| NSPM (Nova srpska politička misao) | — | — | 41.7 | 44.4 | — | — | — |
| Faktor Plus | — | 1,200 | 47.2 | 31.5 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| NSPM (Nova srpska politička misao) | — | 1,000 | 37.5 | 39.6 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
Background
- Electoral system
- 250 seats by closed-list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency, D'Hondt, with a 3% threshold of votes cast that is waived for national-minority lists. 126 seats for a majority.
- Incumbent
- Đuro Macut (Prime Minister, independent; SNS-led government) · Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.