New Zealand general election, 2026

The National–ACT–NZ First coalition seeks a second term against Labour and the Greens, who agreed in February to govern together. Both major parties sit near historic lows.

Synthetic call made 18days to polls

The call

200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.

SyntheticNAT+1.6New Zealand National Party

Poll average · 8 pollsNAT+0.7

Gap+0.9synthetic − polls, points

SyntheticPoll average

New Zealand National Party

28.8 synthetic28.5 polls

New Zealand Labour Party

27.2 synthetic27.8 polls

Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand

14.6 synthetic14.4 polls

New Zealand First

8.5 synthetic10.4 polls

ACT New Zealand

10.2 synthetic9.6 polls

Opportunity Party

2.2 synthetic5.9 polls

Te Pāti Māori

6.8 synthetic1.6 polls

Against the polls

Share error: 1.6 pts per option
Crosstab error: 7.8 pts
Sample: 200 synthetic voters

By group

Each cell is synthetic / Mata-Horizon (for Māori media; reported by RNZ), shares within the group.

Group	n	NAT	LAB	GRN	NZF	ACT	Error
Māori on the Māori roll	17	11.9 / 4.7	27.5 / 31.4	15.5 / 32.6	8.0 / 2.3	4.1 / 3.5	7.7
Māori on the general roll	14	26.8 / 12.5	34.6 / 43.2	11.2 / 19.3	6.6 / 11.4	5.5 / 4.5	7.8

The government

Direction of the country (right / wrong direction) — the regularly published measure of the Luxon government's standing

Approve · synthetic21.2%67.0% disapprove

Approve · polls31.1%54.4% disapprove

Net gap−22.5synthetic − polls

Latest polls

Newest first.

Pollster	Fieldwork to	Sample	NAT	LAB	GRN	NZF	ACT
Taxpayers' Union–Curia	OCT 05, 2026	1,000	28.5	28.2	13.3	12.0	9.2
1News–Verian	OCT 05, 2026	1,001	29.0	28.0	16.0	10.0	9.0
RNZ–Reid Research	OCT 01, 2026	1,000 (online)	25.9	30.8	14.8	10.6	9.0
1News–Verian	SEP 27, 2026	1,004	28.0	28.0	16.0	9.0	11.0
Roy Morgan	SEP 27, 2026	859	31.0	23.5	16.0	10.0	11.0
The Post/Freshwater Strategy	SEP 11, 2026	1,011	27.0	28.0	14.0	13.0	9.0
Anacta	SEP 10, 2026	1,701	30.0	31.0	12.0	10.0	8.0
Taxpayers' Union–Curia	SEP 03, 2026	1,000	29.0	25.9	13.9	8.4	10.5

Background

Electoral system: Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP): 71 single-member electorates (64 general + 7 Māori) by first past the post, plus 49 closed party-list seats allocated on the party vote. A party enters list allocation with 5% of the party vote OR one electorate seat; overhang seats are added when a party's electorate wins exceed its entitlement. 61 seats = majority of a 120-seat House.
Incumbent: Christopher Luxon · New Zealand National Party

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.