Israel parliamentary election, 2026
The 25th Knesset served a full term, the first to do so since 1988. Netanyahu's government survived the Haredi conscription crisis but enters the election trailing; 38 lists are on the ballot.
Synthetic call made 7days to polls
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
SyntheticLikud+0.4Likud
Poll average · 15 pollsLikud+1.5
Gap−1.1synthetic − polls, points
SyntheticPoll average
Likud
14.5 synthetic19.4 polls
Yashar
14.1 synthetic17.9 polls
Together
22.7 synthetic9.3 polls
The Democrats
6.1 synthetic7.6 polls
Shas
5.7 synthetic6.6 polls
Yisrael Beiteinu
11.1 synthetic6.6 polls
UTJ
4.0 synthetic6.5 polls
Otzma Yehudit
3.1 synthetic6.4 polls
Joint List
3.8 synthetic6.4 polls
RZP–Zehut
2.8 synthetic5.0 polls
+ 3 smaller options not shown.
Against the polls
- Share error
- 3.5 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 9.3 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Afkar, shares within the group.
| Group | n | Likud | Yashar | Together | Dems | Shas | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arab citizens | 37 | 6.2 / 3.7 | 12.0 / 2.4 | 15.8 / 2.4 | 5.7 / 6.1 | — | 9.3 |
The government
Benjamin Netanyahu's performance as Prime Minister (approve / disapprove)
Approve · synthetic19.7%74.7% disapprove
Approve · polls33.0%59.0% disapprove
Net gap−29.0synthetic − polls
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | Yashar | Likud | Together | YB | Dems |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazar Research Institute / Panel4All | OCT 08, 2026 | 700 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Yossi Tatika | OCT 08, 2026 | 500 | 24.0 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| Kantar Institute | OCT 08, 2026 | 555 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Direct Polls | OCT 07, 2026 | 504 | 20.0 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| Shlomo Filber / NEXT DATA | OCT 07, 2026 | 2,175 | 23.0 | 31.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| Midgam Project / The Madad / Stat-Net / Askaria | OCT 07, 2026 | 1,013 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| Midgam Research & Consulting | OCT 05, 2026 | 501 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Kantar Institute | OCT 04, 2026 | 553 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 |
Background
- Electoral system
- Closed-list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency, seats allocated by the Bader–Ofer (D'Hondt) method with a 3.25% electoral threshold. Pairs of lists may sign surplus-vote agreements to compete jointly for leftover seats. 120 seats; 61 needed for a governing majority. The Prime Minister is the head of whichever coalition commands a majority.
- Incumbent
- Benjamin Netanyahu · Likud
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.