Cape Verde presidential election, 2026

José Maria Neves seeks a second term six months after his PAICV won back parliament, ending ten years of MpD government. A runoff on 29 November if no one wins a majority.

Synthetic call made 26days to round one

The call

200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average.

SyntheticJMN+38.0José Maria Neves

Poll average—no poll average

Gap—synthetic − polls, points

SyntheticPoll average

José Maria Neves

48.3 synthetic

Joana Rosa

21.7 synthetic

Casimiro de Pina

3.9 synthetic

Antero Tavares

3.8 synthetic

Gilson Alves

3.8 synthetic

Loisito Tavares de Sousa

2.4 synthetic

Against the polls

Share error: —
Crosstab error: —
Sample: 200 synthetic voters

Background

Electoral system: Direct election by two-round majority; a second round on 29 November 2026 only if no candidate wins an absolute majority of valid votes on 15 November. Candidates must be Cape Verdean by origin with no other nationality, over 35, with 3 years' prior residency, and submit 1,000–4,000 elector signatures to the Constitutional Court. Five-year term.
Incumbent: José Maria Neves · African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde (PAICV)

How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.