Bulgaria presidential election, 2026
Twenty-seven tickets are on the ballot. Iliana Iotova, president since January, seeks a full term backed by Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria and the BSP; if no ticket wins outright, the top two meet on 1 November.
The call
200 synthetic voters, set beside the poll average. The lead is over the whole field.
Against the polls
- Share error
- 4.7 pts per option
- Crosstab error
- 26.0 pts
- Sample
- 200 synthetic voters
By group
Each cell is synthetic / Alpha Research, shares within the group.
| Group | n | Ind. (PB) | Ind. (PP–DB) | Revival | Velichie | MECh | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 GERB–SDS voters | 15 | 68.9 / 29.9 | 25.1 / 59.8 | 6.0 / 10.3 | — | — | 26.0 |
The government
Trust in the government of Prime Minister Rumen Radev (Market Links: 'Do you trust or not trust the government?')
Latest polls
Newest first.
| Pollster | Fieldwork to | Sample | Ind. (PB) | Ind. (PP–DB) | Revival | Ind. (Edinenie) | MECh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallup | OCT 06, 2026 | 987 | 47.8 | 26.4 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| Myara | OCT 04, 2026 | 1,000 | 46.9 | 25.3 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Trend | OCT 02, 2026 | 1,003 | 47.8 | 24.6 | 9.7 | 1.9 | 4.6 |
| Alpha Research | OCT 01, 2026 | 1,000 (face-to-face) | 44.5 | 26.1 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Market Links | SEP 29, 2026 | 1,006 | 51.6 | 27.5 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Sova Harris | SEP 28, 2026 | 1,000 | 50.2 | 23.7 | 12.7 | — | — |
Background
- Electoral system
- Two-round system. A ticket wins outright only with an absolute majority AND turnout of at least 50%; otherwise the top two tickets go to a runoff the following Sunday (1 November 2026). No candidate has ever won in round one. President and Vice President run on a joint ticket for a five-year term; a "none of the above" option has been on the ballot since 2016.
- Incumbent
- Iliana Iotova · Independent (BSP member, membership frozen; backed by Progressive Bulgaria and BSP)
How the call is made. For every race we build a synthetic electorate that matches the real one, at least 200 voters strong, and ask it how it will vote before polling day. The call is set beside the published polls as they come in, and scored against the official count once it is in.